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. 2022 Jun 22;22(1):565.
doi: 10.1186/s12879-022-07539-4.

Spatio-temporal distribution of tuberculosis and the effects of environmental factors in China

Hao Li  1   2 , Miao Ge  3 , Mingxin Zhang  2
Affiliations

Spatio-temporal distribution of tuberculosis and the effects of environmental factors in China

Hao Li et al. BMC Infect Dis. .

Abstract

Background: Although the World Health Organization reports that the incidence of tuberculosis in China is decreasing every year, the burden of tuberculosis in China is still very heavy. Understanding the spatial and temporal distribution pattern of tuberculosis in China and its influencing environmental factors will provide effective reference for the prevention and treatment of tuberculosis.

Methods: Data of TB incidence from 2010 to 2017 were collected. Time series and global spatial autocorrelation were used to analyze the temporal and spatial distribution pattern of tuberculosis incidence in China, Geodetector and Geographically Weighted Regression model were used to analyze the environmental factors affecting the TB incidence.

Results: In addition to 2007 and 2008, the TB incidence decreased in general. TB has a strong spatial aggregation. Cities in Northwest China have been showing a trend of high-value aggregation. In recent years, the center of gravity of high-value aggregation area in South China has moved further south. Temperature, humidity, precipitation, PM10, PM2.5, O3, NO2 and SO2 have impacts on TB incidence, and in different regions, the environmental factors show regional differences.

Conclusions: Residents should pay more attention to the risk of developing TB caused by climate change and air pollutant exposure. Increased efforts should be placed on areas with high-value clustering in future public resource configurations.

Keywords: Environmental factors; GWR; Geodetector; Spatio-temporal distribution; Tuberculosis.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Principle of GeoDetector model
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Time series of TB incidence in China(a. Annual changes in TB incidence in China from 2005 to 2017, b. Monthly variation of TB incidence in China from 2010 to 2017)
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
2010–2017 spatial distribution of TB incidence in China (Created by ArcGIS 10.2 software https://www.esri.com/en-us/home)
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
The spatial clusters of the TB incidence in China (Created by ArcGIS 10.2 software https://www.esri.com/en-us/home)
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
GeoDetector results for association of environmental factors with TB incidence (Temp: temperature; Hum: humidity; Preci: precipitation; Sun: sunshine hours; WS: wind speed. Created by R4.1.2 software https://mirror.lzu.edu.cn/CRAN/)
Fig. 6
Fig. 6
GWR results on the impact of environmental factors on TB incidence in 2017 (Created by ArcGIS 10.2 software https://www.esri.com/en-us/home)
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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