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. 2022 Jun 9;19(12):7096.
doi: 10.3390/ijerph19127096.

Cardiovascular Disease Mortality Attributable to Low Whole-Grain Intake in CHINA: An Age-Period-Cohort and Joinpoint Analysis

Fangyao Chen  1   2 , Yuxiang Zhang  1 , Shiyu Chen  1 , Aima Si  1 , Weiwei Hu  1
Affiliations

Cardiovascular Disease Mortality Attributable to Low Whole-Grain Intake in CHINA: An Age-Period-Cohort and Joinpoint Analysis

Fangyao Chen et al. Int J Environ Res Public Health. .

Abstract

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death worldwide. Low whole-grain intake is found to be one of the most important risk factors for cardiovascular disease development and progression. In this study, we focused on exploring the long-term trends of low whole-grain intake attributed to cardiovascular disease mortality in China during 1990-2019 and relative gender differences. Study data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study. We used the age-period-cohort model to estimate the adjusted effect of age, period, and cohorts. Annual and average annual percentage changes were estimated by joinpoint regression analysis. We observed an increasing trend with a net drift of 1.208% for males and 0.483% for males per year. The longitudinal age curve suggested that the attributed rate increased for both genders. Period and cohort effects all suggested that the risk for males showed an increased trend that was higher than that of females. Our findings suggest that males and senior-aged people were at a higher risk of cardiovascular disease mortality attributed to low whole-grain intake. Effective strategies are needed to enhance people's health consciousness, and increasing whole-grain intake may achieve a better preventive effect for cardiovascular disease.

Keywords: age-period-cohort analysis; attributive mortality; cardiovascular disease; low whole-grain intake.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
The long-term trends of low whole-grain intake attributed to CVD mortality (per 100,000) in China during 1990–2019. (A) Age-specific CVD mortality rates for males; (B) age-specific CVD mortality rates for females; (C) gender-specific CMR along with time periods; (D) gender-specific ASMR along with time periods; (E) age-specific CVD mortality rates along with birth cohorts for males; (F) age-specific CVD mortality rates along with birth cohorts for females.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Effect of age, year period, and birth cohort and estimation of local drifts by genders. (A): Crude mortality rates (per 100,000) and corresponding 95% CI (the error bars) along age groups; (B): rate ratio (RR) and 95% CI (the error bars) for cohort effect; (C): RRs and 95% CI (the error bars) for period effect; (D): local drift (percent per year) along with age groups.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Results obtained from joinpoint analysis. (A) Segments of CMR for males; (B) segments of CMR for females; (C) segments of ASMR for males; (D) segments of ASMR for females.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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