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. 2022 Aug;28(8):1700-1705.
doi: 10.1038/s41591-022-01872-6. Epub 2022 Jun 27.

City-level impact of extreme temperatures and mortality in Latin America

Josiah L Kephart  1 , Brisa N Sánchez  2 , Jeffrey Moore  2 , Leah H Schinasi  3   4 , Maryia Bakhtsiyarava  5 , Yang Ju  6 , Nelson Gouveia  7 , Waleska T Caiaffa  8 , Iryna Dronova  9 , Saravanan Arunachalam  10 , Ana V Diez Roux  3   2 , Daniel A Rodríguez  5
Affiliations

City-level impact of extreme temperatures and mortality in Latin America

Josiah L Kephart et al. Nat Med. 2022 Aug.

Abstract

Climate change and urbanization are rapidly increasing human exposure to extreme ambient temperatures, yet few studies have examined temperature and mortality in Latin America. We conducted a nonlinear, distributed-lag, longitudinal analysis of daily ambient temperatures and mortality among 326 Latin American cities between 2002 and 2015. We observed 15,431,532 deaths among ≈2.9 billion person-years of risk. The excess death fraction of total deaths was 0.67% (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.58-0.74%) for heat-related deaths and 5.09% (95% CI 4.64-5.47%) for cold-related deaths. The relative risk of death was 1.057 (95% CI 1.046-1.067%) per 1 °C higher temperature during extreme heat and 1.034 (95% CI 1.028-1.040%) per 1 °C lower temperature during extreme cold. In Latin American cities, a substantial proportion of deaths is attributable to nonoptimal ambient temperatures. Marginal increases in observed hot temperatures are associated with steep increases in mortality risk. These risks were strongest among older adults and for cardiovascular and respiratory deaths.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Annual mean temperatures during the city-specific observation period in 326 Latin American cities.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2. The city-specific temperature–mortality, exposure–response association (accumulated over 21 d) and distribution of daily temperatures for six selected cities.
The blue and red solid lines represent temperature–mortality associations above (blue lines) and below (red lines) the minimum mortality temperature. Gray error bars represent 95% CIs. Vertical lines are placed at the optimal (that is, minimum mortality) temperature (dotted), the 5th and 95th percentiles of the temperature distribution (dashed) and 1st and 99th temperature percentiles (dash–dot).
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
City-specific RR of heat-related mortality per 1 °C increase above the 95th percentile (P95) observed daily temperature in 326 Latin American cities.
Extended Data Fig. 1
Extended Data Fig. 1. City-specific change in relative risk of mortality per 1 °C decrease in temperature below 5th percentile observed daily temperature.
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Extended Data Fig. 2
Extended Data Fig. 2. Cluster groupings in analyses of cause-specific mortality outcomes (by temperature, N = 12 clusters).
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See this image and copyright information in PMC

Comment in

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