Contextual factors associated with contraceptive utilization and unmet need among sexually active unmarried women in Kenya: A multilevel regression analysis

Abstract

Background: Unmarried women who report less recent sexual intercourse (>30 days from survey enumeration) are largely excluded from global health monitoring and evaluation efforts. This study investigated level and contextual factors in modern contraceptive utilization and unmet need within this overlooked female subpopulation in Kenya from 2014 to 2019.

Methods: This study analyzed data from the Performance Monitoring and Accountability (PMA) survey in Kenya, a nationally representative survey of female respondents, to understand the level and contextual factors for family planning utilization and unmet need within female subgroups including married, unmarried sexually active (defined as sexual intercourse within 30 days of survey enumeration), and unmarried with less recent sexual intercourse (defined as sexual intercourse 1-12 months prior to survey enumeration). The analysis included multilevel regression modeling to assess correlates on outcomes of modern contraceptive prevalence rate (mCPR), unmet need, and recent emergency contractive pill (ECP) use, which is a unique PMA question: "Have you used emergency contraception at any time in the last 12 months?".

Results: Cumulatively, the surveys enumerated 19,161 women and this weighted analysis included 12,574 women aged 15-49 from three female subgroups: 9,860 married women (78.4%), 1,020 unmarried sexually active women (8.1%), and 1,694 unmarried women with less recent sexual intercourse (13.5%). In 2019, while controlling for covariates, unmarried women with less recent sexual intercourse exhibited statistically significant differences (p-value<0.02) in current mCPR, mCPR at last sexual intercourse, unmet need for modern contraceptives, and recent ECP use. As compared to an unmarried woman with less recent sexual intercourse (i.e., reported sex 1-12 months prior to survey), the odds of an unmarried sexually active woman (i.e., reported sex within last 30 days of survey) currently using modern contraceptives was 2.28 (95% CI: 1.64, 3.18), using modern contraceptives at last sexual intercourse was 1.44 (95% CI: 1.06, 1.95), and having an unmet need for modern contraceptives was 2.01 (95% CI: 1.29, 3.13) while controlling for covariates. The odds of a married woman using ECP during the last 12 months was 0.60 (95% CI: 0.44, 0.82) as compared to an unmarried woman with less recent sexual intercourse. In 2019, unmarried women with less recent sexual intercourse reported the highest rate of ECP use during the last 12 months at 13.5%, which was similar for unmarried sexually active women at 13.3%. Since 2014, summary measures of unmet need and total demand for modern contraceptives increased for unmarried women with less recent sexual intercourse, but declined for the other female subgroups.

Conclusion: In Kenya, unmarried women with less recent sexual intercourse exhibited significantly different contraceptive utilization, unmet need, and recent emergency contraceptive use. Moreover, changes over time in key family planning indicators were asymmetrical by female subgroup. This study identifies an important monitoring gap regarding unmarried women with less recent sexual intercourse. Evidence dissemination by the global measurement community for these unmarried women is exceedingly scarce; therefore, developing an inclusive research agenda and actionable information about these marginalized women is needed to enable targeted planning and equitable service delivery.

Fig 1. Conceptual framework for analysis.

Fig 2. Current modern contraceptive prevalence rate by female subgroup.

Fig 3. Modern contraceptive prevalence rate at last sexual intercourse compared to current use mCPR by female subgroup (2019 survey).

Fig 4. Unmet need for modern contraceptives by female subgroup.

Fig 5. Total demand for modern contraceptives by female subgroup.

Fig 6. Proportion of demand satisfied for modern contraceptives by female subgroup.

Fig 7. Recent emergency contraceptive use (within the last 12 months) by female subgroup.