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. 2022 Oct;42(10):2299-2316.
doi: 10.1111/liv.15357. Epub 2022 Jul 9.

Comparison of primary liver cancer mortality estimates from World Health Organization, global burden disease and global cancer observatory

Chenxi Li  1 , Wen-Qiang He  2   3
Affiliations

Comparison of primary liver cancer mortality estimates from World Health Organization, global burden disease and global cancer observatory

Chenxi Li et al. Liver Int. 2022 Oct.

Abstract

Aims: This study aims to compare estimates of primary liver cancer mortality from World Health Organization (WHO), Global Burden Disease (GBD) and Global Cancer Observatory (GCO).

Methods: Liver cancer mortality was extracted from WHO, GBD and GCO for 92 countries for the most recent year. Age-standardized rate (ASR) was computed and used for current comparisons across the three data sources. Temporal trend for 75 countries was analysed and compared between WHO and GBD from 1990 to 2019 using joinpoint regression. Average annual percentage change for the most recent 10 years was used as indicator for change.

Results: The estimates of ASR were quite consistent across the three data sources, but most similar estimates were found between WHO and GCO in both region and country levels. The differences in ASR were negatively correlated with completeness of cause-of-death registration, human development index and proportion of liver cancer because of alcohol consumption. Consistent trends of ASR were found from 35 countries between WHO and GBD in the most recent 10 years. However, opposite trends were found from 10 countries with five from Southern America, four from Europe and one from Asia. Of the 18 countries for projection, opposite trends between WHO and GBD were found from seven countries.

Conclusion: While the ASR of primary liver cancer mortality was comparable across the three data sources, most similar estimates were found between WHO and GCO. The opposite trends found from 10 countries between WHO and GBD raised concerns of true patterns in these countries.

Keywords: World Health Organization; age-standardized rate; average annual percentage change; completeness of cause-of-death registry; global burden disease; global cancer observatory; mortality.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Figures

FIGURE 1
FIGURE 1
Correlations and comparisons of age‐standardized rates of primary liver cancer mortality from 92 selected countries between the pairs among WHO, GBD and GCO. WHO, World Health Organization; GBD, Global Burden Disease; GCO, Global Cancer Observatory; ASR, age‐standardized rate.
FIGURE 2
FIGURE 2
Comparisons of differences in age‐standardized rates and number of deaths of primary liver cancer mortality between the pairs among WHO, GBD and GCO by region, country and socio‐demographic index. WHO, World Health Organization; GBD, Global Burden Disease; GCO, Global Cancer Observatory; ASR, age‐standardized rate; SDI, socio‐demographic index.
FIGURE 3
FIGURE 3
Correlations of differences in age‐standardized rates of primary liver cancer mortality from WHO, GBD and GCO with completeness of cause‐of‐death registration, human development index, proportion of liver cancer attributable to HBV, HCV and alcohol consumption, categories of data sources used by GCO. ASR, age‐standardized rate, WHO, World Health Organization; GBD, Global Burden Disease; GCO, Global Cancer Observatory; r represents the correlation coefficient.
FIGURE 4
FIGURE 4
Joinpoint regression analysis of age‐standardized rates of primary liver cancer mortality for 75 countries from WHO and GBD, 1990–2019. WHO, World Health Organization; GBD, Global Burden Disease.
FIGURE 5
FIGURE 5
The predicted age‐standardized rates of primary liver cancer mortality up to 2030 in 18 selected countries from WHO and GBD. WHO, World Health Organization; GBD, Global Burden Disease.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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