Recently spreading human monkeypox virus infection and its transmission during COVID-19 pandemic period: A travelers' prospective

Abstract

Presently, monkeypox has emerged in multiple countries with many confirmed cases, posing a global public health threat. A link has been found between air travel and the international spread of infectious diseases including the previous spread of monkeypox. This article highlights the spread of COVID-19 through air travel, and then monkeypox spread from one country to another. Scientists are trying to establish the air travel and monkeypox spread. Any travel link from an endemic country has not been proven yet to describe the rising number of current monkeypox cases in non-endemic countries. Due to the quantification method, the direct link of the diseases with air travel might be difficult to establish. However, we have also developed different statistical models of the confirmed cases and the number of air travelers per year (noted in countries where monkeypox has spread). As there is no direct link, these models might show a probability of an indirect association of air travel. However, more strong evidence is needed in this direction. Although, the sudden appearance of monkeypox cases in multiple countries in a few days demands comprehensive epidemiological investigations, genome sequencing, and phylogenetic analysis of viral isolates to prove the travel link from an endemic country. At the same time, it is also necessary to know the real cause while also exploring any direct and/or indirect travel links between different countries. Similarly, the possibility of any zoonotic event should find out to understand the more about natural animal reservoir(s) for the monkeypox virus, which is unknown until now. However, this report will help researchers for conducting further explorative research and investigations for understanding transmission patterns and guide policymakers to make proactive policies to limit the spread of monkeypox.

Keywords: Country-wise transmission; International travel; Monkeypox virus; SARS-CoV-2 virus.

Fig. 1

Recent monkeypox outbreaks and the disease reporting non-African countries where the outbreak is being experienced (a) recent monkeypox outbreak in non-African countries and their geographic locations (b) recent monkeypox transmission route in non-African countries.

Fig. 2

Developed statistical models for recent monkeypox outbreak (a) one regression model was developed using the number of infected cases in African countries for the recent monkeypox outbreak. The model was developed using WHO open data from the WHO report published on June 17, 2022. (b) one regression model was developed using the number of infected cases in non-African countries for the recent monkeypox outbreak. The model was developed using WHO open data from the WHO report published on June 17, 2022. (c) one regression model was developed using the number of air travelers per year in non-African countries where recent monkeypox outbreaks are occurring. Data was collected from an open-source database (Statista). We collected the year 2019 data. After that, the pandemic started, and most of the air travel was stopped.