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. 2022 Jun 15:10:869239.
doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.869239. eCollection 2022.

Trends in Musculoskeletal Rehabilitation Needs in China From 1990 to 2030: A Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort Modeling Study

Ningjing Chen  1 , Daniel Yee Tak Fong  1 , Janet Yuen Ha Wong  1
Affiliations

Trends in Musculoskeletal Rehabilitation Needs in China From 1990 to 2030: A Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort Modeling Study

Ningjing Chen et al. Front Public Health. .

Abstract

Background: Disability and medical expenses caused by musculoskeletal disorders in China had a great impact on the global health and economy. Rehabilitation is essential for dealing with musculoskeletal disorders. However, China's musculoskeletal rehabilitation needs remain unknown. This study aimed to examine the secular trends for musculoskeletal rehabilitation needs in China from 1990 to 2030.

Methods: Data on musculoskeletal rehabilitation needs were extracted from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) repository. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to reflect fluctuations in the age-standardized rates. The Bayesian age-period-cohort models were used to project rehabilitation needs.

Results: The number of prevalent cases and years lived with disability (YLD) counts in need of musculoskeletal rehabilitation increased greatly in China from 1990 to 2019. There will be 465.9 million Chinese people in need of rehabilitation, with the age-standardized prevalence rate increasing to 21,151.0 [2.5-97.5% predictive interval (95% PI) 14,872.6-27,429.3] per 100,000 persons in 2030. Similarly, the YLD counts will increase to 40.1 million, with the age-standardized YLD rate increasing to 1,811.2 (95% PI 1,232.5-2,390.0) per 100,000 persons in 2030.

Conclusions: Increasing trends in musculoskeletal rehabilitation needs were found from 1990 to 2019, which will be anticipated through 2030. Rehabilitation is suggested to be integrated into primary care settings.

Keywords: musculoskeletal disorders; prediction; prevalence; rehabilitation; years lived with disability.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Proportion of prevalent cases of musculoskeletal rehabilitation needs in the G20 countries. (A) 1990. (B) 2019.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Age-standardized rates of musculoskeletal rehabilitation needs by sociodemographic index in China. (A) Musculoskeletal disorders. (B) Low back pain. (C) Neck pain. (D) Fractures. (E) Other injuries. (F) Osteoarthritis. (G) Amputation. (H) Rheumatoid arthritis.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Age-standardized prevalence rates of musculoskeletal rehabilitation needs in China from 1990 to 2030. The dots indicate the observed rates, and the fan plot presents the predicted values with 2.5 and 97.5% quantiles. The solid line indicates the predicted mean values. The vertical dashed line shows when the prediction begins. (A) Musculoskeletal disorders. (B) Low back pain. (C) Neck pain. (D) Fractures. (E) Other injuries. (F) Osteoarthritis. (G) Amputation. (H) Rheumatoid arthritis.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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