Political differentiation and consolidation of choice in a U.S. media malaise environment: indirect effects of perceived alikeness on voter participation

Abstract

Political marketing campaigns expend enormous effort each campaign season to influence voter turnout. This cyclical democratic process and nonstop news cycle foster an environment of media malaise. Voter pessimism undercuts participation through increased perceived alikeness among ballot options. Differentiation and consolidation theory describe the voting decision process as reconciling rational and irrational information. Voters seek out differences to decide among presented options. More politically interested voters are more likely to vote. Counterintuitively, higher political organizational avocational interest is related to higher perceived alikeness. Across three studies, higher perceived alikeness of parties, candidates, and issues was related to a lower likelihood to vote (LTV). Conditional voting ineffectual beliefs exacerbated these indirect effects on LTV. In a saturated marketing atmosphere with massive spending during each election cycle, we discuss implications to influence LTV based on results.

Keywords: Differentiation and consolidation theory; Media malaise; Perceived alikeness; Political differentiation; Voter participation.

Fig. 1

Conceptual model

Fig. 2

Modeled political organizational avocational interest effects on likelihood to vote for the three studies

Fig. 3

Moderation effects of belief voting ineffectual and political organizational avocational interest on perceived alikeness and likelihood to vote for the three studies