Mixed frequency composite indicators for measuring public sentiment in the EU

Abstract

Monitoring the state of the economy in a short time is a crucial aspect for designing appropriate and timely policy responses in the presence of shocks and crises. Short-term confidence indicators can help policymakers in evaluating both the effect of policies and the economic activity condition. The indicator commonly used in the EU to evaluate the public opinion orientation is the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI). Nevertheless, the ESI shows some drawbacks, particularly in the adopted weighting scheme that is static and not country-specific. This paper proposes an approach to construct novel composite confidence indicators, focusing on both the weights and the information set to use. We evaluate these indicators by studying their response to the policies introduced to contain the COVID-19 pandemic in some selected EU countries. Furthermore, we carry out an experimental study where the proposed indicators are used to forecast economic activity.

Keywords: Composite indicator; Confidence indicator; Media sentiment; Mixed data sampling; Public opinion.

Fig. 1

GDP growth rates for the considered countries

Fig. 2

MF-CCI (black line), ${\text{MF-CCI}}^{+}$ (green line) and ESI (blue line) evolution for Belgium, France, Germany (Vertical red line indicates March 2020)

Fig. 3

MF-CCI (black line), ${\text{MF-CCI}}^{+}$ (green line) and ESI (blue line) evolution for Greece, Italy, Spain (Vertical red line indicates March 2020)

Fig. 4

Distribution of country ranks ${\overline{r}}_n^l$ for L simulations