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. 2022 Jul 14;387(2):189-191.
doi: 10.1056/NEJMc2203322.

Geographic Disparities in Rising Rates of Firearm-Related Homicide

Rosanna Smart  1 , Terry L Schell  1 , Andrew R Morral  2 , Nancy Nicosia  3
Affiliations

Geographic Disparities in Rising Rates of Firearm-Related Homicide

Rosanna Smart et al. N Engl J Med. .
No abstract available

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Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.. Adjusted Incidence Rate Ratios and Adjusted Rate Estimates of Firearm-Related Homicide, According to State.
Panel A shows adjusted incidence rate ratios that represent rates of firearm-related homicide according to state (including the District of Columbia [DC]) in 2014 relative to the average mean rate of firearm-related homicide for all states, with adjustment for demographic characteristics and whether a given county was urban (urbanicity). An incidence rate ratio of 1 represents an average mean rate of firearm-related homicide in the state in 2014 of 3.2 per 100,000 population. Error bars in Panels A and B indicate 95% confidence intervals. For example, the incidence rate ratio of 2.05 for Louisiana (LA) suggests that the rate of firearm-related homicide in that state in 2014, in an analysis controlled for demographic characteristics and urbanicity, was about twice the rate of the average state. State names are denoted by U.S. Postal Service state abbreviations. Panel B shows adjusted incidence rate ratios for the annual increase in the rate of firearm-related homicide from 2014 to 2019, representing state-specific trends relative to the average trend across states. An incidence rate ratio of 1 in Panel B represents the average annual trend in the rates of firearm-related homicide for all states from 2014 through 2019, which was a 2% annual increase. For example, the incidence rate ratio of 1.08 for Missouri (MO) suggests that the rate of firearm-related homicide in that state increased 8% faster than the average annual rate increase for all states. Panel C shows model-estimated rates of firearm-related homicide for 2014 and 2019 for each state, with all other demographic characteristics and urbanicity held at the mean values but with allowance for national and state-specific trends. For example, the adjusted rates for Missouri indicate that if the mean values of demographic characteristics and urbanicity were held constant, Missouri had an approximate doubling of the rate of firearmrelated homicide (from 4.8 per 100,000 population to 10.3 per 100,000 population). Arrows indicate the rate increase from 2014 (circle) to 2019 (plus sign). In all three panels, the states along the y axes are ordered top to bottom from largest to smallest rate according to the model-estimated rate of firearm-related homicide for 2019.
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References

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    1. Detailed mortality — all counties (2006–2019), as compiled from data provided by the 57 vital statistics jurisdictions through the Vital Statistics Cooperative Program. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics, 2020. (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/nvss-restricted-data.htm).
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