Futures Planning at the AAN: Approach and Initial Outcome

Abstract

We describe a process of organizational strategic future forecasting, with a horizon of 2035, as implemented by the American Academy of Neurology (AAN) on behalf of its members, and as a model approach for other organizations. The participants were members of the 2018-2020 AAN Boards of Directors and Executive Team, moderated by a consultant with expertise in future forecasting. Four predetermined model scenarios of import to our field (1 "expectable," 1 "challenging," and 2 "visionary") were discussed in small groups, with alternative scenarios developed in specific domains. Common themes emerged among all scenarios: the importance of thoughtful integration of biomedical and information technology tools into neurologic practice; continued demonstration of the value of neurologic care to society; and emphasis on population management and prevention of neurologic disease. Allowing for the inherent uncertainties of predicting the future, the AAN's integration of structured forecasting into its strategic planning process has allowed the organization to prepare more effectively for change, such as the disruptions stemming from the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The approaches outlined here will be integrated into future AAN operations and may be implemented to a similar effect by other organizations.

Figure 1. Time Cone: A Futurist's Framework

This illustrates a limitation of future forecasting: the further into the future, the greater the uncertainty. Reprinted with permission from “How to Do Strategic Planning Like a Futurist” by Amy Webb. Future Today Institute, July 20, 2019; hbr.org. Copyright 2019 by Harvard Business Publishing; all rights reserved.

Figure 2. Scenario Zones for Aspirational Futures

The conceptual framework for the various scenarios. Source: Institute for Alternative Futures; used with permission.