Survival analysis and outcome prediction of COVID-19 patients: a retrospective observational study from tertiary referral hospital in Indonesia

Abstract

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has become a global concern. Recently, Indonesia contributed the third-highest number of new COVID-19 cases in the world. We provide supporting information for COVID-19 management. This retrospective cohort study was conducted at Dr. Soetomo General Hospital. Researchers collected demographics, comorbidity, initial laboratory tests, and complications data of patients. This study performed a comparative, survival, and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Survival analysis showed a decrease in the probability of survival associated with an increase in the variables of age, diabetes, white blood cell (WBC) count, and neutrophils percentage, and a decrease in lymphocytes percentage during hospitalization. Lymphocyte percentage, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), WBC count, neutrophil percentage, had an accuracy 0.727 (95%CI 0.642-0.812; p<0.001), 0.726 (95%CI 0.641-0.812; p<0.001), 0.706 (95%CI 0.615-0.796; p<0.001), and 0.700 (95%CI 0.612-0.788; p<0.001) respectively, in predicting worse outcome. Our study suggests routine complete blood count tests in the admission of a patient with COVID-19 infections, which can be used to determine the survival and prognosis of hospitalized patients.