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. 2023 Jan;43(1):139-142.
doi: 10.1177/0272989X221112420. Epub 2022 Jul 15.

Markov Cohort State-Transition Model: A Multinomial Distribution Representation

Rowan Iskandar  1   2   3 , Cassandra Berns  1   2
Affiliations

Markov Cohort State-Transition Model: A Multinomial Distribution Representation

Rowan Iskandar et al. Med Decis Making. 2023 Jan.

Abstract

A Markov model simulates the average experience of a cohort of patients.Monte Carlo simulation, the standard approach for estimating the variance, is computationally expensive.A multinomial distribution provides an exact representation of a Markov model.Using the known formulas of a multinomial distribution, the mean and variance of a Markov model can be readily calculated.

Keywords: cohort model; cost-effectiveness analysis; decision-analytic model; markov model; state-transition model.

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