Effects of ambient temperature on hospital admissions for obstructive nephropathy in Wuhan, China: A time-series analysis

Abstract

Under the background of global warming, it has been confirmed that heat exposure has a huge impact on human health. The current study aimed to evaluate the effects of daily mean ambient temperature on hospital admissions for obstructive nephropathy (ON) at the population level. A total of 19,494 hospitalization cases for ON in Wuhan, China from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2018 were extracted from a nationwide inpatient database in tertiary hospitals according to the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)- 10 codes. Daily ambient meteorological and pollution data during the same period were also collected. A quasi-Poisson Generalized Linear Model (GLM) combined with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was applied to analyze the lag-exposure-response relationship between daily mean temperature and daily hospital admissions for ON. Results showed that there were significantly positive associations between the daily mean temperature and ON hospital admissions. Relative to the minimum-risk temperature (-3.4 ℃), the risk of hospital admissions for ON at moderate hot temperature (25 ℃, 75th percentile) occurred from lag day 4 and stayed to lag day 12 (cumulative relative risk [RR] was 1.846, 95 % confidence interval [CI]: 1.135-3.005, over lag 0-12 days). Moreover, the risk of extreme hot temperature (32 ℃, 99th percentile) appeared immediately and lasted for 8 days (RR = 2.019, 95 % CI: 1.308-3.118, over lag 0-8 days). Subgroup analyses indicated that the middle-aged and elderly (≥45 years) patients might be more susceptible to the negative effects of high temperature, especially at moderate hot conditions. Our findings suggest that temperature may have a significant impact on the acute progression and onset of ON. Higher temperature is associated with increased risks of hospital admissions for ON, which indicates that early interventions should be taken in geographical settings with relatively high temperatures, particularly for the middle-aged and elderly.

Keywords: Ambient temperature; Distributed lag non-linear model; Obstructive nephropathy; Time-series analysis.