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. 2022 Jul 1:10:907814.
doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.907814. eCollection 2022.

Modeling of the Small-Scale Outbreak of COVID-19

Ze-Yang Wu  1 , Hong-Bo Zhang  1   2 , Hong-Fei Zhao  3
Affiliations

Modeling of the Small-Scale Outbreak of COVID-19

Ze-Yang Wu et al. Front Public Health. .

Abstract

With the improvement of treatment and prevention methods, many countries have the pandemic under control. Different from the globally large-scale outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020, now the outbreak in these countries shows new characteristics, which calls for an effective epidemic model to describe the transmission dynamics. Meeting this need, first, we extensively investigate the small-scale outbreaks in different provinces of China and use classic compartmental models, which have been widely used in predictions, to forecast the outbreaks. Additionally, we further propose a new version of cellular automata with a time matrix, to simulate outbreaks. Finally, the experimental results show that the proposed cellular automata could effectively simulate the small-scale outbreak of COVID-19, which provides insights into the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in China and help countries with small-scale outbreaks to determine and implement effective intervention measures. The countries with relatively small populations will also get useful information about the epidemic from our research.

Keywords: COVID-19; cellular automata; simulation; small-scale outbreak; time matrix.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
The daily confirmed cases and recovered cases of COVID-19 in Hebei province on January 2021.
Figure 2
Figure 2
The framework of SIR model.
Figure 3
Figure 3
The framework of SEIUIDRURD model.
Figure 4
Figure 4
The framework of CA.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Trend chart of daily confirmed cases of the models in Heilongjiang province.
Figure 6
Figure 6
Trend chart of recovered cases of the models in Heilongjiang province.
Figure 7
Figure 7
Simulation results of CA: (A) is the results of 19th day; (B) is the results of 32th day.
Figure 8
Figure 8
Trend chart of daily confirmed cases of the models in Hebei province.
Figure 9
Figure 9
Trend chart of recovered cases of the models in Hebei province.
Figure 10
Figure 10
Trend chart of daily confirmed cases of CA in Potter County.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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