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. 2022 Jun;10(12):709.
doi: 10.21037/atm-22-2737.

Does pretreatment elevated calcitonin level cause the poor prognosis in patients with medullary thyroid cancer?

Han Zhang  1 , Daqi Zhang  1 , Chengqiu Sui  1 , Jingting Li  1 , Canxiao Li  1 , Qiao He  1 , Rui Du  1 , Yishen Zhao  1 , Yantao Fu  1 , Le Zhou  1 , Tie Wang  1 , Gianlorenzo Dionigi  2   3 , Nan Liang  1 , Hui Sun  1
Affiliations

Does pretreatment elevated calcitonin level cause the poor prognosis in patients with medullary thyroid cancer?

Han Zhang et al. Ann Transl Med. 2022 Jun.

Abstract

Background: Medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC) patients have poor survival, tumor/node/metastasis (TNM) stage and biochemical prognosis are the most important factors. We investigated the clinical significance of calcitonin (Ctn) to assess the biochemical prognosis of MTC.

Methods: This retrospective observational study enrolled 77 MTC patients with complete information and primary surgery at the Department of Thyroid Surgery, China-Japan Union Hospital of Jilin University between 2009 and 2020. Patient and MTC characteristics were recorded. All patients were divided into remission, stable, and progression according to biochemical prognosis. We analyzed the correlation between preoperative serum Ctn, TNM stage and biochemical prognosis.

Results: Elevated preoperative serum Ctn was positively correlated with TNM stage. Patients with higher Ctn, multifocality, and bilateral tumors were associated with a higher TNM stage. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that preoperative serum Ctn level was an independent risk factor for TNM stage. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis found the best Ctn cut-off value for predicting TNM III was 45.88 pg/mL, which had a sensitivity of 87.2% and a specificity of 65.8%. The best Ctn cut-off value for predicting TNM IV was 167.00 pg/mL, with a sensitivity of 92.9% and a specificity of 77.6%. In univariate analysis, patients with higher preoperative serum Ctn, multifocality, bilateral tumors, and higher TNM stage were more likely to progress. The optimal cut-off value for progression was 195.5 pg/mL, which had a sensitivity of 80.0% and a specificity of 70.2%. For every 1-unit increase in preoperative serum Ctn levels, the risk of progression increased by 1.004 times (P=0.008), and patients with TNM stage III [hazard ratio (HR) =9.663; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.411, 66.156] were nearly 9.7-fold more likely to progress than those in TNM stage I/II.

Conclusions: Elevated preoperative serum Ctn predicted poor clinical outcomes in MTC.

Keywords: Medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC); biochemical prognosis; calcitonin (Ctn); tumor/node/metastasis stage (TNM stage).

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Conflict of interest statement

Conflicts of Interest: All authors have completed the ICMJE uniform disclosure form (available at https://atm.amegroups.com/article/view/10.21037/atm-22-2737/coif). DZ reports funding support from the Jilin University Bethune Project (No. 2020B49), and the Jilin Province Science and Technology Development Program (No. 20190201225JC). NL reports funding support from the National Nature Science Foundation of China (No. 81702651) and the Jilin University Bethune Project (No. 2020B14). HS reports funding support from the National Nature Science Foundation of China (No. 81972499), the Jilin Province Science and Technology Development Program (No. 20190201275JC), and the Program of Jilin Provincial Finance Department (No. 2020SCZ03). The other authors have no conflicts of interest to declare.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Study cohort with inclusion and exclusion flowchart. MTC, medullary thyroid carcinoma.
Figure 2
Figure 2
ROC curves for Ctn in predicting TNM stage and progression. (A) ROC curve of preoperative serum Ctn combined detection for stage III; (B) ROC curve of preoperative serum Ctn combined detection for stage IV; (C) ROC curve of preoperative serum Ctn combined detection for progression. TNM, tumor/node/metastasis; AUC, area under the curve; ROC, receiver operating characteristic; Ctn, calcitonin.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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