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. 2022 Jun;17(SP):91-106.
doi: 10.12927/hcpol.2022.26852.

Forecasting Staffing Needs for Ontario's Long-Term Care Sector

Adrian Rohit Dass  1 , Raisa Deber  2 , Audrey Laporte  2
Affiliations

Forecasting Staffing Needs for Ontario's Long-Term Care Sector

Adrian Rohit Dass et al. Healthc Policy. 2022 Jun.

Abstract
in English, French

This paper presents a forecasting model for personal support workers (PSWs) and nurses (registered nurses [RNs] and registered practical nurses [RPNs]) for Ontario's long-term care (LTC) sector. In the base-case scenario, the model projects a shortfall in the supply of full-time equivalent (FTE) workers required to meet the expected demand for care for all workers by 2035, which would require an estimated increase of 11,632 FTE PSWs, 6,031 FTE RNs and 10,178 FTE RPNs entering the market by 2035. The results of this paper may have important implications for health human resources policy planning in Ontario's LTC sector.

Cet article présente un modèle de prévision pour les préposés aux bénéficiaires (PAB) et les infirmières (infirmières autorisées [IA] et infirmières praticiennes autorisées [IPA]) pour le secteur des soins de longue durée (SLD) en Ontario. Dans le scénario de référence, le modèle prévoit une pénurie de l'offre de travailleurs équivalents temps plein (ETP) nécessaire pour répondre à la demande de soins prévue pour tous les travailleurs d'ici 2035, ce qui nécessiterait une augmentation estimée de 11 632 PAB ETP, 6 031 IA ETP et 10 178 IPA ETP sur le marché d'ici 2035. Les résultats de cet article pourraient avoir des répercussions importantes sur la planification des politiques en matière de ressources humaines en santé dans le secteur des SLD en Ontario.

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Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.
Framework underlying the forecasting model
Figure 2.
Figure 2.
Projected gap/surplus of workers (FTE), 2020 to 2035
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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