Accurate Forecasting of Emergency Department Arrivals With Internet Search Index and Machine Learning Models: Model Development and Performance Evaluation

Abstract

Background: Emergency department (ED) overcrowding is a concerning global health care issue, which is mainly caused by the uncertainty of patient arrivals, especially during the pandemic. Accurate forecasting of patient arrivals can allow health resource allocation in advance to reduce overcrowding. Currently, traditional data, such as historical patient visits, weather, holiday, and calendar, are primarily used to create forecasting models. However, data from an internet search engine (eg, Google) is less studied, although they can provide pivotal real-time surveillance information. The internet data can be employed to improve forecasting performance and provide early warning, especially during the epidemic. Moreover, possible nonlinearities between patient arrivals and these variables are often ignored.

Objective: This study aims to develop an intelligent forecasting system with machine learning models and internet search index to provide an accurate prediction of ED patient arrivals, to verify the effectiveness of the internet search index, and to explore whether nonlinear models can improve the forecasting accuracy.

Methods: Data on ED patient arrivals were collected from July 12, 2009, to June 27, 2010, the period of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. These included 139,910 ED visits in our collaborative hospital, which is one of the biggest public hospitals in Hong Kong. Traditional data were also collected during the same period. The internet search index was generated from 268 search queries on Google to comprehensively capture the information about potential patients. The relationship between the index and patient arrivals was verified by Pearson correlation coefficient, Johansen cointegration, and Granger causality. Linear and nonlinear models were then developed with the internet search index to predict patient arrivals. The accuracy and robustness were also examined.

Results: All models could accurately predict patient arrivals. The causality test indicated internet search index as a strong predictor of ED patient arrivals. With the internet search index, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and the root mean square error (RMSE) of the linear model reduced from 5.3% to 5.0% and from 24.44 to 23.18, respectively, whereas the MAPE and RMSE of the nonlinear model decreased even more, from 3.5% to 3% and from 16.72 to 14.55, respectively. Compared with each other, the experimental results revealed that the forecasting system with extreme learning machine, as well as the internet search index, had the best performance in both forecasting accuracy and robustness analysis.

Conclusions: The proposed forecasting system can make accurate, real-time prediction of ED patient arrivals. Compared with the static traditional variables, the internet search index significantly improves forecasting as a reliable predictor monitoring continuous behavior trend and sudden changes during the epidemic (P=.002). The nonlinear model performs better than the linear counterparts by capturing the dynamic relationship between the index and patient arrivals. Thus, the system can facilitate staff planning and workflow monitoring.

Keywords: emergency department; internet search index; machine learning; nonlinear model; patient arrival forecasting.

Figure 1

A framework of the intelligent forecasting system with the internet search index. ANN: artificial neural network; ARIMA: autoregressive integrated moving average model; ARIMAX: ARIMA with explanatory variables; ELM: extreme learning machine; GLM: generalized linear model; LSTM: long short-term memory; RF: random forest; SVM: support vector machine.

Figure 2

Weekly patient arrivals to ED. ED: emergency department.

Figure 3

Boxplot of patient volumes of ED visits per month. ED: emergency department.

Figure 4

Boxplot of patient volumes in ED of holidays. ED: emergency department; HOL: holidays; NON: nonholidays; SCH: school closure.

Figure 5

Trend of ED patient arrivals and internet search index. ED: emergency department.