Prediction of dengue incidents using hospitalized patients, metrological and socio-economic data in Bangladesh: A machine learning approach

Abstract

Dengue fever is a severe disease spread by Aedes mosquito-borne dengue viruses (DENVs) in tropical areas such as Bangladesh. Since its breakout in the 1960s, dengue fever has been endemic in Bangladesh, with the highest concentration of infections in the capital, Dhaka. This study aims to develop a machine learning model that can use relevant information about the factors that cause Dengue outbreaks within a geographic region. To predict dengue cases in 11 different districts of Bangladesh, we created a DengueBD dataset and employed two machine learning algorithms, Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) and Support Vector Regression (SVR). This research also explores the correlation among environmental factors like temperature, rainfall, and humidity with the rise and decline trend of Dengue cases in different cities of Bangladesh. The entire dataset was divided into an 80:20 ratio, with 80 percent used for training and 20% used for testing. The research findings imply that, for both the MLR with 67% accuracy along with Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 4.57 and SVR models with 75% accuracy along with Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 4.95, the number of dengue cases reduces throughout the winter season in the country and increases mainly during the rainy season in the next ten months, from August 2021 to May 2022. Importantly, Dhaka, Bangladesh's capital, will see the maximum number of dengue patients during this period. Overall, the results of this data-driven analysis show that machine learning algorithms have enormous potential for predicting dengue epidemics.

Fig 1. Different symptoms and transmission patterns of dengue fever.

Fig 2. Dataset visualization for the different parameters (Rainfall, temperature, and humidity) and the number of dengue patients recorded in different districts of Bangladesh for September 2019.

Fig 3. Stepwise workflow diagram for predicting the dengue cases based on the proposed algorithm.

Fig 4

(A) shows the city-wise predicted cases of dengue viruses using the SVR Model, whereas (B) contains the MLR model results. Both models produced the outcome for the same cities of Bangladesh for the specific month of the year 2021.

Fig 5. Predicting the dengue patients in 11 different cities of Bangladesh from Aug 2021 to May 2022 using Multiple Linear Regression (MLR).

Fig 6. Predicting the dengue patients in 11 different cities of Bangladesh from Aug 2021 to May 2022 using Support Vector Regression (SVR).

Fig 7. Month-wise dengue patients prediction trend using Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) and Support Vector Regression (SVR).