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. 2022 Jul 23;20(1):36.
doi: 10.1186/s12962-022-00370-3.

The population-level economic burden of liver cancer in China, 2019-2030: prevalence-based estimations from a societal perspective

Meng-Di Cao #  1 , Cheng-Cheng Liu #  1 , Hong Wang #  1 , Lin Lei #  2 , Maomao Cao  1 , Yuting Wang  3 , He Li  1 , Xin-Xin Yan  1 , Yan-Jie Li  1 , Xin Wang  1 , Ji Peng  2 , Chunfeng Qu  3 , Eleonora Feletto  4 , Ju-Fang Shi  5 , Wanqing Chen  6
Affiliations

The population-level economic burden of liver cancer in China, 2019-2030: prevalence-based estimations from a societal perspective

Meng-Di Cao et al. Cost Eff Resour Alloc. .

Abstract

Background: Benchmark data on the population-level economic burden are critical to inform policymakers about liver cancer control. However, comprehensive data in China are currently limited.

Methods: A prevalence-based approach from a societal perspective was used to quantify the annual economic burden of liver cancer in China from 2019 to 2030. Detailed per-case data on medical/non-medical expenditure and work-loss days were extracted from a multicenter survey. The numbers/rates of new/prevalent cases and deaths, survival, and population-related parameters were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 and the literature. All expenditure data were reported in both 2019 Chinese Yuan (CNY) and United States dollar (US$, for main estimations).

Result: The overall economic burden of liver cancer was estimated at CNY76.7/US$11.1 billion in China in 2019 (0.047% of the local GDP). The direct expenditure was CNY21.6/US$3.1 billion, including CNY19.7/US$2.9 billion for medical expenditure and CNY1.9/US$0.3 billion for non-medical expenditure. The indirect cost was CNY55.1/US$8.0 billion (71.8% of the overall burden), including CNY3.0/US$0.4 billion due to disability and CNY52.0/US$7.5 billion due to premature death. The total burden would increase to CNY84.2/US$12.2 billion, CNY141.7/US$20.5 billion, and CNY234.3/US$34.0 billion in 2020, 2025, and 2030, accounting for 0.102%, 0.138%, and 0.192% of China's GDP, respectively. However, if China achieves the goals of Healthy China 2030 or the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals for non-communicable diseases, the burden in 2030 would be < CNY144.4/US$20.9 billion.

Conclusions: The population-level economic burden of liver cancer in China is currently substantial and will consistently increase in the future. Sustainable efforts in primary and secondary interventions for liver cancer need to be further strengthened.

Keywords: China; Cost of illness; Liver cancer; Population-level; Prevalence.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
The overall design
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
The breakdowns of the population-level economic burden of liver cancer in China in 2019, the overall and by subgroup
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
The overall burden and breakdown of the estimated population-level economic burden of liver cancer in China, 2019–2030. Demographic change scenario: only considered the demographic changes. Base case scenario: simultaneously considered the changes in demography and the increasing disease burden of liver cancer in China (based on the GBD 2019 data on incidence, mortality and prevalence 2009–2019). SDG 2030: one of the Sustainable Development Goals proposed by the United Nations, which is, by 2030, to reduce by one third premature mortality from non-communicable diseases through prevention and treatment and promote mental health and well-being; the sub-scenario (a) considered the demographic changes and the reduction in liver cancer mortality; the sub-scenario (b) furtherly considered the reductions in incidence and prevalence of liver cancer. Healthy China 2030 scenario: by 2030, to achieve a 15% increase in 5-year survival rate for cancer
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Sensitivity analyses for the estimated population-level economic burden of liver cancer in China, 2019–2030
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