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. 2022 Jun 8;1(3):pgac081.
doi: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgac081. eCollection 2022 Jul.

Vaccinating children against COVID-19 is crucial to protect schools and communities

Erik T Rosenstrom  1 , Jessica Mele  1 , Julie S Ivy  1 , Maria E Mayorga  1 , Mehul D Patel  2 , Kristen Hassmiller Lich  3 , Paul L Delamater  4 , Raymond L Smith 3rd  5 , Julie L Swann  1
Affiliations

Vaccinating children against COVID-19 is crucial to protect schools and communities

Erik T Rosenstrom et al. PNAS Nexus. .

Abstract

To evaluate the joint impact of childhood vaccination rates and school masking policies on community transmission and severe outcomes due to COVID-19, we utilized a stochastic, agent-based simulation of North Carolina to test 24 health policy scenarios. In these scenarios, we varied the childhood (ages 5 to 19) vaccination rate relative to the adult's (ages 20 to 64) vaccination rate and the masking relaxation policies in schools. We measured the overall incidence of disease, COVID-19-related hospitalization, and mortality from 2021 July 1 to 2023 July 1. Our simulation estimates that removing all masks in schools in January 2022 could lead to a 31% to 45%, 23% to 35%, and 13% to 19% increase in cumulative infections for ages 5 to 9, 10 to 19, and the total population, respectively, depending on the childhood vaccination rate. Additionally, achieving a childhood vaccine uptake rate of 50% of adults could lead to a 31% to 39% reduction in peak hospitalizations overall masking scenarios compared with not vaccinating this group. Finally, our simulation estimates that increasing vaccination uptake for the entire eligible population can reduce peak hospitalizations in 2022 by an average of 83% and 87% across all masking scenarios compared to the scenarios where no children are vaccinated. Our simulation suggests that high vaccination uptake among both children and adults is necessary to mitigate the increase in infections from mask removal in schools and workplaces.

Keywords: Agent-Based SEIR Simulation Model; COVID-19; Childhood Vaccination; Public Health Policy; School and Community Health.

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Figures

Fig. 1.
Fig. 1.
County-level proportion of total population fully vaccinated over time. Values presented correspond to simulation values, where solid lines reflect the mean vaccine uptake. Dashed lines correspond to the minimum and maximum vaccine uptake across the 100 counties of North Carolina, and the shaded area represents the corresponding range.
Fig. 2.
Fig. 2.
Cumulative infections per 100,000 population. Columns disaggregate the infection rate by age group, where “All Age Groups” reports the state-level infection rate. Rows separate scenarios by masking status. Each subgraph presents six vaccine uptake settings. The red dotted line corresponds to the estimated true infection rates for validation. Each scenario is accompanied by a 95% CI (shaded band).
Fig. 3.
Fig. 3.
A. Number of individuals currently hospitalized. Rows separate scenarios by masking status. Each subgraph presents six vaccine uptake settings. The red dotted line corresponds to the observed hospitalizations for validation. Each scenario is accompanied by a 95% CI (shaded band).
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Update of

References

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