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Review
. 2022 Jul 4;25(8):104720.
doi: 10.1016/j.isci.2022.104720. eCollection 2022 Aug 19.

The challenges of dynamic vulnerability and how to assess it

Marleen C de Ruiter  1 , Anne F van Loon  1
Affiliations
Review

The challenges of dynamic vulnerability and how to assess it

Marleen C de Ruiter et al. iScience. .

Abstract

Recent disasters have demonstrated the challenges faced by society as a result of the increasing complexity of disaster risk. In this perspective article, we discuss the complex interactions between hazards and vulnerability and suggest methodological approaches to assess and include dynamics of vulnerability in our risk assessments, learning from the compound and multi-hazard, socio-hydrology, and socio-ecological research communities. We argue for a changed perspective, starting with the circumstances that determine dynamic vulnerability. We identify three types of dynamics of vulnerability: (1) the underlying dynamics of vulnerability, (2) changes in vulnerability during long-lasting disasters, and (3) changes in vulnerability during compounding disasters and societal shocks. We conclude that there is great potential to capture the dynamics of vulnerability using qualitative and model-based methods, both for reproducing historic and projecting future dynamics of vulnerability. We provide examples using narratives, agent-based models, and system dynamics.

Keywords: Earth sciences; Environmental event; Social sciences.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

None
Graphical abstract
Figure 1
Figure 1
Three key types of dynamics of vulnerability The panels show from left to right: underlying dynamics of vulnerability, such as (internal) migration, conflicts, or economic recession (A); dynamics during long-lasting vulnerability, such as effects of (mal)adaptation, eroding financial resources, or mental well-being (B); and dynamics of vulnerability owing to consecutive or compound disasters, such as the effects of an earlier hazard on the vulnerability at the time of a second hazard (C).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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