Assessment of indoor radon concentration and time-series analysis of gamma dose rate in three thermal spas from Portugal

Abstract

This work is a follow-up study on the exposure to indoor radon levels in Portuguese thermal spas. The previous research involved 16 thermal spas, where radon measurements in air and thermal mineral water were performed twice a year, from 2012 to 2016. These studies revealed concerning radon concentrations both in air and water. Therefore, a follow-up study on long-term radon measurements was conducted to estimate the year-round average radon exposure. The closer the long-term measurement is to 365 days, the more representative it will be of annual average radon levels. Continuous measurements over 1 year for the indoor radon levels are now presented for three of the 16 previously studied thermal spas, together with a time-series analysis of the gamma dose rates registered within the facilities of these thermal spas (TS). An attempt to identify possible patterns in the variation of gamma dose rates was made. Hourly gamma dose rates were modelled and forecasted using the Box-Jenkins seasonal time series models (SARIMA). The results showed that between December 2018 and November 2019, the indoor radon concentration varied from 202 to 1941 Bq/m³ (TS1), from 52 to 191 Bq/m³ (TS2), and from 937 to 1750 Bq/m³ (TS3). Approximately 60% of the obtained values for radon concentration in the indoor air exceed the reference level of 300 Bq/m³. Gamma dose rates were continuously measured with GAMMA SCOUT® detectors for hourly readings (µSv/h) between 83 and 229 days. On average, the results are similar in all considered locations and range between 0.169 and 0.264 µSv/h, although variations are different in winter and summer. The calculated effective doses ranged between 3.49 and 18.65 mSv/year (TS1), between 1.37 and 2.53 mSv/year (TS2), and between 13.89 and 22.97 mSv/year (TS3). For occupational exposure purposes, workers would be classified as category A in nine locations (out of 20), as the exposure is liable to exceed an effective dose of 6 mSv/year. For the time-series analysis, the obtained models captured the dynamics of the time series data and produced short-term forecasts. Their accuracies have been quantified by minimizing the root mean square error, the mean absolute error due to the actual forecast, and the mean absolute scaled error. The current results corroborate the conclusions of previous research and give continuous data on occupational exposure to radon for three Portuguese thermal spas. For TS1 and TS3, the indoor radon levels are much higher than the reference level. Under this circumstance, mitigation measures must be implemented to reduce the radon levels accordingly with the Euratom Directive 2013/59 and the Decree-Law No. 108/2018. In general, the gamma dose rates were below 1 μSv/h and, therefore, the contribution to the annual effective dose is not significant. Nevertheless, the variation of the gamma dose rates showed a coherent behavior with the radon progeny build up in closed spaces, as when the considered facilities were closed for certain periods. The time series analysis made it possible to fit some models to the gamma dose rate variation, and although the produced models cannot forecast exact gamma dose rates, they can provide valuable information to build sound planning and decision-making strategies in occupational exposure.

Keywords: Effective dose; Gamma dose; Model; Occupational exposure; Radon; Time-series analysis.

Fig. 1

Geological map of Portugal

Fig. 2

Frequency distribution of the gamma dose rates: a TS1-TP1 (winter) b TS1-TP2 (summer)

Fig. 3

Frequency distribution of the gamma dose rates: a TS1-ORL1 (winter/spring) b TS1-ORL2 (spring/summer)

Fig. 4

Frequency distribution of the gamma dose rates: a TS2-ORL1 (spring/summer) b TS2-ORL2 (summer/autumn)

Fig. 5

Plots of gamma dose rates per hour (µSv/h): a TS1-TP1; b TS1-TP2

Fig. 6

Plots of gamma dose rates per hour (µSv/h): a TS1-ORL1 b TS1-ORL2

Fig. 7

Plots of gamma dose rates per hour (µSv/h): a TS2-ORL1 b TS2-ORL2

Fig. 8

Autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial autocorrelation function (PACF) plots for time series of hourly gamma dose rates (TS1-TP1, TP2, ORL1, ORL2)

Fig. 9

Autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial autocorrelation function (PACF) plots for time series of hourly gamma dose rates (TS2-ORL1, ORL2)

Fig. 10

Time-series (ARIMA model) fitted to the gamma dose rates (µSv/h) at TS1 (TP1, TP2, ORL1, and ORL2) and TS2 (ORL1 and ORL2)

Fig. 11

Time-series (ARIMA model) prediction of gamma dose rates (µSv/h) at TS1 (TP1, TP2, ORL1, and ORL2) and TS2 (ORL1 and ORL2)