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. 2022 Jul 26;12(1):12699.
doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-16934-5.

Time trends and projected obesity epidemic in Brazilian adults between 2006 and 2030

José Matheus Estivaleti  1 , Juan Guzman-Habinger  2 , Javiera Lobos  3 , Catarina Machado Azeredo  4 , Rafael Claro  5 , Gerson Ferrari  6 , Fernando Adami  7 , Leandro F M Rezende  8
Affiliations

Time trends and projected obesity epidemic in Brazilian adults between 2006 and 2030

José Matheus Estivaleti et al. Sci Rep. .

Abstract

We examined time trends and projected obesity epidemic in Brazilian adults between 2006 and 2030 by sex, race/skin color, educational attainment, and state capitals. Self-reported body weight and height of 730,309 adults (≥ 18 years) from the Vigitel study were collected by telephone interview between 2006 and 2019. A multinomial logistic regression model was used to predict the prevalence of body mass index (BMI) categories as a function of time by 2030. The prevalence of obesity increased from 11.8% in 2006 to 20.3% in 2019. The projected prevalences by 2030 are estimated to be 68.1% for overweight, 29.6% for obesity, and 9.3% for obesity classes II and III. Women, black and other minority ethnicities, middle-aged adults, adults with ≤ 7 years of education, and in Northern and Midwestern capitals are estimated to have higher obesity prevalence by 2030. Our findings indicate a sustained increase in the obesity epidemic in all sociodemographic subgroups and across the country. Obesity may reach three out of 10 adults by 2030.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Time trends and projected prevalence of body mass index categories in Brazilian adults between 2006 and 2030 according to sex.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Projected prevalence of underweight or normal weight, pre-obesity, obesity and obesity classes II and III in Brazilian adults by 2030 according to sociodemographic characteristics.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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