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. 2022 Jul 13;12(14):1794.
doi: 10.3390/ani12141794.

Potential Current and Future Distribution of the Long-Whiskered Owlet (Xenoglaux loweryi) in Amazonas and San Martin, NW Peru

Gerson Meza Mori  1 , Nilton B Rojas-Briceño  1 , Alexander Cotrina Sánchez  1   2 , Manuel Oliva-Cruz  1 , Christian M Olivera Tarifeño  3 , Marlon Y Hoyos Cerna  3 , Jhonny D Ramos Sandoval  3 , Cristóbal Torres Guzmán  1
Affiliations

Potential Current and Future Distribution of the Long-Whiskered Owlet (Xenoglaux loweryi) in Amazonas and San Martin, NW Peru

Gerson Meza Mori et al. Animals (Basel). .

Abstract

The IUCN has listed the long-whiskered owlet (Xenoglaux loweryi) as vulnerable due to the presence of few geographic records, its restricted range, and anthropogenic threats. Its natural history and ecology are largely unknown, and its distribution is widely debated; therefore, there is an urgent need for the real-time conservation of X. loweryi. In this study, 66 geo-referenced records of X. loweryi, 18 environmental variables, and the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) have been used to predict the current and future (2050 and 2070) potential distribution of X. loweryi in the Amazonas and San Martin regions of northwestern Peru. In fact, under current conditions, areas of "high", "moderate", and "low" potential habitat suitability cover 0.16% (140.85 km2), 0.46% (416.88 km2), and 1.16% (1048.79 km2) of the study area, respectively. Moreover, under future conditions, the "high", "moderate", and "low" probability areas present profits and losses in terms of habitat suitability. Based on the environmental variables, this species mostly inhabits areas with a forest fraction with presence of trees with an emergent tree canopy of ~10-30 metres and depends on Yunga montane forest habitats with high humidity but it is not dependent on bare cover area, crops, or grasslands. Nevertheless, most of the current and future distribution areas are not part of the protected natural areas of Amazonas and San Martin. Additionally, the combination of climate change and anthropogenic activities contribute to further losses of this species habitat. Therefore, from the management point of view, corrective and preventive actions will help to preserve this species over time.

Keywords: MaxEnt; conservation; deforestation; protected areas; species distribution models (SDM).

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
(a) South America; (b) Study departments; (c) Geographic location and protected areas in Amazonas and San Martin (Peru). Natural protected area categories of Amazonas and San Martin: NP: national park, NS: national sanctuary, CR: communal reserve, AMPF: Alto Mayo protected forest, RZ: reserved zones, RCA: regional conservation areas, PCA: private conservation areas.
Figure 2
Figure 2
X. loweryi’s natural habitat in montane forests of Fundo Alto Nieva—San Martin. Photo taken by Kenny Neill Rodriguez Añazco.
Figure 3
Figure 3
(a) ROC curve from the MaxEnt model. (b) The Jackknife test indicates the contribution of different environmental variables to the species’ current distribution.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Contribution of environmental variables to the performance of the MaxEnt model.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Response of environmental variables. In the figure, the y-axis indicates the probability of the species occurrence (logistic output). The red curves show the mean response, and the blue ranges are the standard deviation (±SD) calculated by 10 replicates. Most influential ecosystems for potential habitat suitability of X. loweryi (Figure 5d): 10, Yunga montane forest; 2, Yunga montane (pluvial) forest and 19, grassland/herbazales.
Figure 6
Figure 6
Potential current distribution of X. loweryi and climate change scenarios in Amazonas and San Martin, NW Peru.
Figure 7
Figure 7
Overlapping human disturbance factors in future scenarios of X. loweryi in Amazonas and San Martin regions (Peru).
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