Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2022 Jul 22:51:101580.
doi: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2022.101580. eCollection 2022 Sep.

Global and regional projections of the economic burden of Alzheimer's disease and related dementias from 2019 to 2050: A value of statistical life approach

Arindam Nandi  1   2 , Nathaniel Counts  3   4 , Simiao Chen  5 , Benjamin Seligman  6   7 , Daniel Tortorice  8 , Daniel Vigo  9 , David E Bloom  10
Affiliations

Global and regional projections of the economic burden of Alzheimer's disease and related dementias from 2019 to 2050: A value of statistical life approach

Arindam Nandi et al. EClinicalMedicine. .

Abstract

Background: The burden of Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRDs) is expected to grow rapidly with population aging, especially in low- and middle-income countries, in the next few decades. We used a willingness-to-pay approach to project the global, regional, and national economic burden of ADRDs from 2019 to 2050 under status quo.

Methods: We projected age group and country-specific disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost to ADRDs in future years based on historical growth in disease burden and available population projections. We used country-specific extrapolations of the value of a statistical life (VSL) year and its future projections based on historical income growth to estimate the economic burden - measured in terms of the value of lost DALYs - of ADRDs. A probabilistic uncertainty analysis was used to calculate point estimates and 95% uncertainty bounds of the economic burden.

Findings: In 2019, the global VSL-based economic burden of ADRDs was an estimated $2.8 trillion. The burden was projected to increase to $4.7 trillion (95% uncertainty bound: $4 trillion-$5.5 trillion) in 2030, $8.5 trillion ($6.8 trillion-$10.8 trillion) in 2040, and $16.9 trillion ($11.3 trillion-$27.3 trillion) in 2050. Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) would account for 65% of the global VSL-based economic burden in 2050, as compared with only 18% in 2019. Within LMICs, upper-middle income countries would carry the largest VSL-based economic burden by 2050 (92% of LMICs burden and 60% of global burden).

Interpretation: ADRDs have a large and inequitable projected future VSL-based economic burden.

Funding: The Davos Alzheimer's Collaborative.

Keywords: ADRD; Alzheimer's disease and related dementias; Dementia; VSL; Value of statistical life.

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

AN, DT, and DEB consult for, and NC's employer has received financial support from Data for Decisions, LLC whose clients include GSK, Merck, and Pfizer. These entities did not fund the research in this manuscript. BS has done pro bono advisory work for Ceresti Health which did not fund the research in this manuscript. All other authors declare no conflict of interest. This publication does not represent the views of the Department of Veterans Affairs or the US government.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Methodological summary for projecting future VSL-based economic burden of ADRDs (Model 1).
Figure 2
Figure 2
Estimated economic burden of ADRDs by country groups through 2050, trillions of 2020 constant US$ (Model 1). Note: Data were available for 168 countries covering more than 99% of the world population. Country income group classifications are from the World Bank (2020 definition). Disease burden was projected based on constant 2010-2019 growth rate (Model 1). Estimates were based on income elasticity values of E=1 for HICs and E=1.5 for LMICs, and adjusted to 2020 constant US$ using consumer price index data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. All future year estimates were discounted at a 3% annual discount rate. LIC: Low-income countries; LMIC: Lower-middle income countries; UMIC: Upper-middle income countries; HIC: High-income countries; T: Trillion.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Estimated economic burden of ADRDs by country through 2050, billions of 2020 US$ (Model 1). Note: Data were available for 168 countries covering more than 99% of the world population. Disease burden was projected based on constant 2010-2019 growth rate (Model 1). Estimates were based on income elasticity values of E=1 for HICs and E=1.5 for LMICs, and adjusted to 2020 constant US$ using consumer price index data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. All future year estimates were discounted at a 3% annual discount rate. Countries without data are marked with white color.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. World Bank. DataBank | The World Bank. 2021. https://databank.worldbank.org/home.aspx. Accessed 23 September 2021.
    1. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. World population prospects. 2019. https://population.un.org/wpp/Publications/. Accessed 6 April 2022.
    1. United Nations. UNdata. 2022. https://data.un.org/Default.aspx. Accessed 17 March 2022.
    1. Bloom D, Chen S, Counts N, et al. Addressing Alzheimer's disease and related dementias to realise the promise of the UN's ‘Decade of Healthy Ageing’. VoxEU. 2021. https://voxeu.org/article/alzheimer-s-and-un-s-decade-healthy-ageing. Accessed 14 May 2021.
    1. Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation . GBD Results Tool. 2019. Global burden of diseases results tool.http://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-results-tool

LinkOut - more resources