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. 2023 Jul;149(7):3209-3218.
doi: 10.1007/s00432-022-04217-5. Epub 2022 Jul 29.

Burden of lung cancer along with attributable risk factors in China from 1990 to 2019, and projections until 2030

Yuan Fang  1 , Zhen Li  1 , Hui Chen  2   3 , Tongchao Zhang  1   2   3 , Xiaolin Yin  1 , Jinyu Man  1 , Xiaorong Yang  4   5 , Ming Lu  6   7   8
Affiliations

Burden of lung cancer along with attributable risk factors in China from 1990 to 2019, and projections until 2030

Yuan Fang et al. J Cancer Res Clin Oncol. 2023 Jul.

Abstract

Objective: This study aimed to identify and project the epidemiological trends and the burden of lung cancer in China.

Methods: We extracted incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and age-standardized rates of lung cancer in China, between 1990 and 2019, from the Global Burden of Disease Study (2019). The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was applied to quantify the trends of lung cancer burden. Furthermore, we used the Bayesian age-period-cohort model to project the incidence and mortality in the next decade.

Results: From 1990 to 2019, the estimated national number of lung cancer incident cases increased by 224.0% to 832,920, deaths increased by 195.4% to 757,170 and DALYs increased by 146.1% to 17,128,580, respectively. Meanwhile, the ASIR, ASMR and ASDR showed an upward trend (EAPC of 1.33, 0.94 and 0.42, respectively). The ASIR and ASMR among males were about 2 times more than females, but the increase in ASIR in females (EAPC = 2.24) was more obvious than those in males (EAPC = 0.10) from 2020 to 2030. In China, smoking remained responsible for the highest burden of lung cancer, but the contribution of ambient particulate matter pollution to DALYs increased from 10.6% in 1990 to 22.5% in 2019 in total population. Moreover, we predicted that the number of deaths from lung cancer will increase by 42.7% in China by 2030.

Conclusion: In China, the burden of lung cancer has been increasing over the past three decades, which highlights more targeted intervention measures are needed to reduce the burden of lung cancer.

Keywords: China; Lung cancer; Projections; Risk factors; Trends.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors have no relevant financial or non-financial interests to disclose.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Numbers and rates of incidence (A), mortality (B) and DALYs (C) of lung cancer by age and sex in 2019 in China. Shading represents the upper and lower limits of the 95% uncertainty intervals (95% UIs). DALYs, disability-adjusted life-years
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Number of incident cases (A), incidence rate (B) of lung cancer by age and sex, from 1990 to 2019 in China; EAPC of incidence rate (C) of lung cancer by age and sex in 2019 in China. EAPC estimated annual percentage change
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Proportions of DALYs attributable to risk factors by sex from 1990 to 2019 in China (A); and proportions of DALYs attributable to risk factors by age and sex in 2019 in China (B). DALYs, disability-adjusted life-years
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Temporal trends and forecasted rates of incidence (A, C) and death (B, D), and number of incident cases (E) and deaths (F) of lung cancer by sex, from 2020 to 2030 in China. Shading represents a 1% decrease and increase interval based on the 2019 rate
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