Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2022 Jul 14:9:938086.
doi: 10.3389/fcvm.2022.938086. eCollection 2022.

The Future Evolution of the Mortality Acceleration Due to the COVID-19: The Charlson Comorbidity Index in Stochastic Setting

Maria Carannante  1 , Valeria D'Amato  1 , Guido Iaccarino  2
Affiliations

The Future Evolution of the Mortality Acceleration Due to the COVID-19: The Charlson Comorbidity Index in Stochastic Setting

Maria Carannante et al. Front Cardiovasc Med. .

Abstract

The empirical evidence from different countries point out many of those who die from coronavirus would have died anyway in the relatively near future due to their existing frailties or co-morbidities. The acceleration of the mortality conceives the underlying insight according to deaths are "accelerated" ahead of schedule due to COVID-19. Starting from this idea, we forecast the future mortality acceleration, based on the deterioration due to the presence of the comorbidities at COVID-19 diagnosis. Accordingly, we explicitly determine the contribution of each comorbidity on the acceleration forecasting, showing the future trend of the excess of deaths due to the COVID-19. To this aim, our proposal consists in developing a revised Charlson Comorbidity Index in a stochastic environment. Based on a post-stratification scheme, we obtain an unbiased comorbidity index that varies by age, centered on the reference population.

Keywords: Charlson Comorbidity Index; mortality projections; proportional hazards model; relative frailty; stochastic modeling.

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Estimation of all causes of deaths and non-COVID-19 deaths. Young ages.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Estimation of all causes of deaths and non-COVID-19 deaths. Adult ages.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Estimation of non-COVID-19 deaths. Young ages.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Estimation of non-COVID-19 deaths. Adult ages.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Survival probability with weighted CCI and unweighted CCI.
Figure 6
Figure 6
Survival probability with different age thresholds.
Figure 7
Figure 7
Theoretical survival probability.
Figure 8
Figure 8
Disability-free survival probability and relative risk for 65yo in EU. Eurostat.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. WHO . Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). World Health Organization; (2020). Available online at: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mis...
    1. Andersson P, Lindholm M. A note on pandemic mortality rates. Scand Actuar J. (2021) 2022:269–78. 10.1080/03461238.2021.1966830 - DOI
    1. Spiegelhalter D. Use of “normal” risk to improve understanding of dangers of COVID-19. BMJ. (2020) 370:m3259. 10.1136/bmj.m3259 - DOI - PubMed
    1. Milevsky MA. Is Covid-19 a Parallel Shock to the Term Structure of Mortality?, Is Covid-19 a Parallel Shock to the Term Structure of Mortality? - With Applications to Annuity Valuation. (2020). Available online at: https://moshemilevsky.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/MILEVSKY_20MAY2020_...
    1. Cairns AJG, Blake DP, Kessler A, Kessler M. The Impact of COVID-19 on Future Higher-Age Mortality. Discussion Paper PI-2007. London: Pension Institute; (2020). Available online at: http://www.pensions-institute.org/uncategorized/discussion-paper-wp2007/

LinkOut - more resources