A machine learning approach to characterize patients with asthma exacerbation attending an acute care setting

Abstract

Background: One of the main problems in poorly controlled asthma is the access to the Emergency Department (ED). Using a machine learning (ML) approach, the aim of our study was to identify the main predictors of severe asthma exacerbations requiring hospital admission.

Methods: Consecutive patients with asthma exacerbation were screened for inclusion within 48 hours of ED discharge. A k-means clustering algorithm was implemented to evaluate a potential distinction of different phenotypes. K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) as instance-based algorithm and Random Forest (RF) as tree-based algorithm were implemented in order to classify patients, based on the presence of at least one additional access to the ED in the previous 12 months.

Results: To train our model, we included 260 patients (31.5% males, mean age 47.6 years). Unsupervised ML identified two groups, based on eosinophil count. A total of 86 patients with eosinophiles ≥370 cells/µL were significantly older, had a longer disease duration, more restrictions to daily activities, and lower rate of treatment compared to 174 patients with eosinophiles <370 cells/μL. In addition, they reported lower values of predicted FEV₁ (64.8±12.3% vs. 83.9±17.3%) and FEV₁/FVC (71.3±9.3 vs. 78.5±6.8), with a higher amount of exacerbations/year. In supervised ML, KNN achieved the best performance in identifying frequent exacerbators (AUROC: 96.7%), confirming the importance of spirometry parameters and eosinophil count, along with the number of prior exacerbations and other clinical and demographic variables.

Conclusions: This study confirms the key prognostic value of eosinophiles in asthma, suggesting the usefulness of ML in defining biological pathways that can help plan personalized pharmacological and rehabilitation strategies.

Keywords: Asthma; Biomarker; Chronic disease; Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; Disability; Exercise capacity; Occupational medicine; Outcome; Rehabilitation.