Changes in the supply of internists: the internal medicine population from 1978 to 1998

Abstract

Between 1978 and 1985, the number of active internists in the United States increased from 64,000 to 91,000, and by 1998 the number will have increased to 141,000. This growth represents an increase of 121% for a 20-year period, during which time the population of the United States is expected to increase only 19%. Thus, the number of adults older than 17 years per active internist will drop from 2464 to 1401. Between 1978 and 1998, we expect the number of subspecialty internists to increase 206%, in contrast to a 77% increase expected for general internists. The proportion of female internists will increase from 7% to 21%. The proportion of the active internist population who are foreign medical graduates will remain stable at about 21% throughout the projection period, but within this group the proportion who are United States citizens is expected to increase while the proportion who are foreign citizens is expected to decline.