COVID-19 market disruptions and food security: Evidence from households in rural Liberia and Malawi

Abstract

We use data collected from panel phone surveys to document the changes in food security of households in rural Liberia and Malawi during the market disruptions associated with the COVID-19 lockdowns in 2020. We use two distinct empirical approaches in our analysis: (a) an event study around the date of the lockdowns (March to July 2020), and (b) a difference-in-differences analysis comparing the lockdown period in 2020 to the same months in 2021, in order to attempt to control for seasonality. In both countries, market activity was severely disrupted and we observe declines in expenditures. However, we find no evidence of declines in food security.

Fig 1. Trends in household food security index (z-score).

Note: Food Security Index is a standardized z-score of HDDS, FCS, and HHS (negatively weighted), using inverse covariance weighting [6] with the mean and standard deviation for January/February 2020.

Fig 2. Household food security index (z-score).

Note: Food Security Index is a standardized z-score of HDDS, FCS, and HHS (negatively weighted), using inverse covariance weighting [6] with the mean and standard deviation for January/February 2020. Data collected in March are excluded because March 2020 was the start of the pandemic. The regression results for this figure are reported in S7 Table. Subfigures on the left plot the change in levels across months, while those on the right report coefficients (with 95% confidence intervals) from the difference-in-differences specification in Eq 3. Regressions include household-by-calendar fixed effects. Standard errors are clustered at the village level.

Fig 3. Effect on crop prices.

Note: The unit of observation is the market-month. There are 95 markets and 13 products in Malawi and 85 markets and 10 products in Liberia. The figure presents coefficients from a regression on ratio of price to price in February of same year, omitting the reference period of February 2020. All monetary values are in USD and Winsorized at 1% and 99%. Standard errors are clustered at the market level. See text for crops included in analysis. Panel B shows (imported) rice and maize prices, with and without subtracting off monthly average relative prices from the WFP data (only available for these two products). All specifications include market fixed effects ans standard errors clustered at market level. Regressions for staples additionally include product fixed effects.