How did consumers react to the COVID-19 pandemic over time?

Abstract

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been the key policy instrument utilized to contain the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper disentangles the effects of NPIs from that of the virus and looks at the specific channels through which the virus impacts consumption. Using geo-located transaction data, we find that consumers' behaviour towards the virus has explanatory power for the drop in consumption in the early stages of the pandemic. This effect disappears in the later stages of the pandemic, suggesting that consumers have adapted their behaviour. As the COVID-19 pandemic progressed, consumers tended to make 'safer' consumption decisions, by avoiding crowded places.

Figure 1

Inter‐temporal shifting of the $P$‐value of the explanatory variable ($x_{it}$): the new number of hospitalized COVID‐19 cases. The horizontal axis $t$ indicates the time in weeks and the vertical axis shows the $P$‐value of the explanatory variable

Figure 2

Inter‐temporal shifting of the beta coefficient of the explanatory variable ($x_{it}$): the new number of hospitalized COVID‐19 cases. The horizontal axis $t$ indicates the time in weeks and the vertical axis shows the beta coefficient of the explanatory variable

Figure A1

Number of ABN AMRO clients in different provinces of the Netherlands compared with the official population statistics of the Netherlands

Figure A2

Transaction‐weighted dynamic‐parameter DBSCAN

Figure A3

Year‐on‐year transactions by ABN Amro clients (euros), new hospitalized COVID‐19 cases, and the proxy of the NPIs measured by the stringency index

Figure A4

Pin transactions in Bernheze and Veendam during the first COVID‐19 wave, 7‐day rolling average

Figure A5

Pin transactions in Bernheze and Veendam during the second COVID‐19 wave, 7‐day rolling average

Figure A6

Average year‐on‐year change in expenditures in sectors that were subject to NPIs, 7‐day rolling average