Use of the Steno T1 Risk Engine Identifies Preclinical Atherosclerosis Better Than Use of ESC/EASD-2019 in Adult Subjects With Type 1 Diabetes at High Risk

Abstract

Objective: To evaluate the concordance between the 2019 ESC Guidelines on diabetes, pre-diabetes, and cardiovascular diseases developed in collaboration with the EASD (ESC/EASD-2019) and the Steno T1 Risk Engine (Steno-Risk) cardiovascular risk scales for individuals with type 1 diabetes (T1D) without cardiovascular disease (CVD) and to analyze the relationships of their use with identification of preclinical atherosclerosis.

Research design and methods: We consecutively selected patients with T1D, without CVD, age ≥40 years, with nephropathy, and/or with ≥10 years of T1D evolution with another risk factor. The presence of plaque at different carotid segments was determined by ultrasonography. Cardiovascular risk was estimated in accord with ESC/EASD-2019 risk groups (moderate/high/very high) and the Steno-Risk (<10%, low; 10-20%, moderate; ≥20%, high), as T1D-specific scores. In an exploratory analysis, we also evaluated the non-T1D-specific 2013 ACC/AHA Guideline on the Assessment of Cardiovascular Risk (ACC/AHA-2013) pooled cohort equation for individuals between 40 and 79 years of age.

Results: We included 501 patients (53% men, mean age 48.8 years, median T1D duration 26.5 years, 41.3% harboring plaques). Concordance between T1D-specific scales was poor (κ = 0.19). A stepped increase in the presence of plaques according to Steno-Risk category was seen (18.4%, 38.2%, and 64.1%, for low, moderate, and high risk, respectively; P for trend <0.001), with no differences according to ESC/EASD-2019 (P = 0.130). Steno-Risk identified individuals with plaques, unlike ESC/EASD-2019 (area under the curve [AUC] 0.691, P < 0.001, vs. AUC 0.538, P = 0.149). Finally, in polynomial regression models (with adjustment for lipid parameters and cardioprotective treatment), irrespective of the ESC/EASD-2019 category, high risk by Steno-Risk was directly associated with atherosclerosis (in moderate/high-risk by ESC/EASD-2019 odds ratio 2.91 [95% CI 1.27-6.72] and 4.94 [2.35-10.40] for the presence of plaque and two or more plaques). Similar results were obtained with discordant higher Steno-Risk versus ACC/AHA-2013 (P < 0.001).

Conclusions: Among T1D patients undergoing primary prevention, use of Steno-Risk seems to result in better recognition of individuals with atherosclerosis in comparison with ESC/EASD-2019. Notwithstanding, carotid ultrasound could improve the categorization of cardiovascular risk.