Modeling Global COVID-19 Dissemination Data After the Emergence of Omicron Variant Using Multipronged Approaches

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has followed a wave pattern, with an increase in new cases followed by a drop. Several factors influence this pattern, including vaccination efficacy over time, human behavior, infection management measures used, emergence of novel variants of SARS-CoV-2, and the size of the vulnerable population, among others. In this study, we used three statistical approaches to analyze COVID-19 dissemination data collected from 15 November 2021 to 09 January 2022 for the prediction of further spread and to determine the behavior of the pandemic in the top 12 countries by infection incidence at that time, namely Distribution Fitting, Time Series Modeling, and Epidemiological Modeling. We fitted various theoretical distributions to data sets from different countries, yielding the best-fit distribution for the most accurate interpretation and prediction of the disease spread. Several time series models were fitted to the data of the studied countries using the expert modeler to obtain the best fitting models. Finally, we estimated the infection rates (β), recovery rates (γ), and Basic Reproduction Numbers ([Formula: see text]) for the countries using the compartmental model SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered). Following more research on this, our findings may be validated and interpreted. Therefore, the most refined information may be used to develop the best policies for breaking the disease's chain of transmission by implementing suppressive measures such as vaccination, which will also aid in the prevention of future waves of infection.

Fig. 1

Plots of distribution fittings depicting the spread and behavior of confirmed cases in 12 different countries with varying levels of infection

Fig. 2

Best fitted time series model and the further predictions of confirmed cases for the respective countries

Fig. 3

Graphs of SIR models of fitted and observed cumulative incidence of infected individuals for the 12 countries of infection studied in this work. The color coding of the plots of SIR model is as following: Susceptible = “Black”; Infected = “Red”; Recovered = “Green”; and Cumulative infected cases = “Blue” (Color figure online)