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. 2022 Aug 4;19(15):9586.
doi: 10.3390/ijerph19159586.

Bayesian Modeling of COVID-19 to Classify the Infection and Death Rates in a Specific Duration: The Case of Algerian Provinces

Hani Amir Aouissi  1   2   3 , Ahmed Hamimes  4 , Mostefa Ababsa  1 , Lavinia Bianco  5 , Christian Napoli  6 , Feriel Kheira Kebaili  2 , Andrey E Krauklis  7 , Hafid Bouzekri  8 , Kuldeep Dhama  9
Affiliations

Bayesian Modeling of COVID-19 to Classify the Infection and Death Rates in a Specific Duration: The Case of Algerian Provinces

Hani Amir Aouissi et al. Int J Environ Res Public Health. .

Abstract

COVID-19 causes acute respiratory illness in humans. The direct consequence of the spread of the virus is the need to find appropriate and effective solutions to reduce its spread. Similar to other countries, the pandemic has spread in Algeria, with noticeable variation in mortality and infection rates between regions. We aimed to estimate the proportion of people who died or became infected with SARS-CoV-2 in each provinces using a Bayesian approach. The estimation parameters were determined using a binomial distribution along with an a priori distribution, and the results had a high degree of accuracy. The Bayesian model was applied during the third wave (1 January-15 August 2021), in all Algerian's provinces. For spatial analysis of duration, geographical maps were used. Our findings show that Tissemsilt, Ain Defla, Illizi, El Taref, and Ghardaia (Mean = 0.001) are the least affected provinces in terms of COVID-19 mortality. The results also indicate that Tizi Ouzou (Mean = 0.0694), Boumerdes (Mean = 0.0520), Annaba (Mean = 0.0483), Tipaza (Mean = 0.0524), and Tebessa (Mean = 0.0264) are more susceptible to infection, as they were ranked in terms of the level of corona infections among the 48 provinces of the country. Their susceptibility seems mainly due to the population density in these provinces. Additionally, it was observed that northeast Algeria, where the population is concentrated, has the highest infection rate. Factors affecting mortality due to COVID-19 do not necessarily depend on the spread of the pandemic. The proposed Bayesian model resulted in being useful for monitoring the pandemic to estimate and compare the risks between provinces. This statistical inference can provide a reasonable basis for describing future pandemics in other world geographical areas.

Keywords: Algeria; Bayesian approach; COVID-19; binomial model; mortality and infection rates.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest. The funders had no role in the design of the study; in the collection, analyses, or interpretation of data; in the writing of the manuscript, or in the decision to publish the results.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
The number of COVD-19 cases in Algeria in the period between 1 January 2021 and 15 August 2021.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Mortality due to COVD-19 in Algeria in the period between 1 January 2021 and 15 August 2021.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Provincial mortality rates (48 provinces) by COVID-19 between 1 January 2021 and 15 August 2021.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Distribution of COVID-19 mortality risk by provinces.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Distribution of COVID-19 mortality risks in the Northern provinces.
Figure 6
Figure 6
Classification of mortality rates in Algerian provinces (48 provinces) by COVID-19 between 1 January 2021 and 15 August 2021.
Figure 7
Figure 7
Risk classification of the mortality rate of the top 10 provinces.
Figure 8
Figure 8
The post hoc risk distribution for the first 8 provinces.
Figure 9
Figure 9
Infection rates in the provinces (48 provinces) by COVID-19 between 1 January 2021 and 15 August 2021.
Figure 10
Figure 10
Radar plot of Morbidity rates in the provinces (48 provinces) by COVID-19 between 1 January 2021 and 15 August 2021.
Figure 11
Figure 11
Risk distribution of COVID-19 infection by province.
Figure 12
Figure 12
Risk distribution of COVID-19 infection in the Northern provinces.
Figure 13
Figure 13
Risk classification of the COVID-19 infection rate of the top 10 provinces.
Figure 14
Figure 14
Classification of infection rates in Algerian provinces (48 provinces) by COVID-19 between 1 January 2021 and 15 August 2021.
Figure 15
Figure 15
The post hoc distribution of infection rates for the first provinces.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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