Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2023 Jan;29(1):120-134.
doi: 10.3350/cmh.2021.0395. Epub 2022 Aug 12.

Hepatocellular carcinoma incidence is decreasing in Korea but increasing in the very elderly

Young Eun Chon  1 , Seong Yong Park  2   3 , Han Pyo Hong  4 , Donghee Son  5 , Jonghyun Lee  6 , Eileen Yoon  7 , Soon Sun Kim  8 , Sang Bong Ahn  9 , Soung Won Jeong  10 , Dae Won Jun  7
Affiliations

Hepatocellular carcinoma incidence is decreasing in Korea but increasing in the very elderly

Young Eun Chon et al. Clin Mol Hepatol. 2023 Jan.

Abstract

Background/aims: A comprehensive analysis of trends in the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is important for planning public health initiatives. We aimed to analyze the trends in HCC incidence in South Korea over 10 years and to predict the incidence for the year 2028.

Methods: Data from patients with newly diagnosed HCC between 2008 and 2018 were obtained from Korean National Health Insurance Service database. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) were calculated to compare HCC incidence. A poisson regression model was used to predict the future incidence of HCC.

Results: The average crude incidence rate (CR) was 22.4 per 100,000 person-years, and the average ASR was 17.6 per 100,000 person-years between 2008 and 2018. The CR (from 23.9 to 21.2 per 100,000 person-years) and ASR (from 21.9 to 14.3 per 100,000 person-years) of HCC incidence decreased during the past ten years in all age groups, except in the elderly. The ASR of patients aged ≥80 years increased significantly (from 70.0 to 160.2/100,000 person-years; average annual percent change, +9.00%; P<0.001). The estimated CR (17.9 per 100,000 person-years) and ASR (9.7 per 100,000 person-years) of HCC incidence in 2028 was declined, but the number of HCC patients aged ≥80 years in 2028 will be quadruple greater than the number of HCC patients in 2008 (from 521 to 2,055), comprising 21.3% of all HCC patients in 2028.

Conclusion: The ASRs of HCC in Korea have gradually declined over the past 10 years, but the number, CR, and ASR are increasing in patients aged ≥80 years.

Keywords: Age-standardized incidence rate; Hepatocellular carcinoma; Incidence; Korea; Prediction.

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

Conflicts of Interest

The authors have no conflicts to disclose.

Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.
Annual incidence rate of hepatocellular carcinoma (2008–2018) and projections of incidence to 2028. (A) Numbers; (B) crude incidence rates (CRs); (C) age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs).
Figure 2.
Figure 2.
Annual incidence rate of hepatocellular carcinoma (2008–2018) in patients aged ≥80 years. (A) Numbers; (B) crude incidence rates (CRs); (C) age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs).
Figure 3.
Figure 3.
Annual changes in etiologies of hepatocellular carcinoma (2008–2018). HBV, hepatitis B virus; HCV, hepatitis C virus; NAFLD, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.
Figure 4.
Figure 4.
Annual proportions of hepatocellular carcinoma cases according to age groups (2008–2018) and projection in 2028.
None
See this image and copyright information in PMC

Comment in

References

    1. Sung H, Ferlay J, Siegel RL, Laversanne M, Soerjomataram I, Jemal A, et al. Global cancer statistics 2020: GLOBOCAN estimates of incidence and mortality worldwide for 36 cancers in 185 countries. CA Cancer J Clin. 2021;71:209–249. - PubMed
    1. Rawla P, Sunkara T, Muralidharan P, Raj JP. Update in global trends and aetiology of hepatocellular carcinoma. Contemp Oncol (Pozn) 2018;22:141–150. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Korean Liver Cancer Association (KLCA) National Cancer Center (NCC) 2018 Korean liver cancer association-national cancer center Korea practice guidelines for the management of hepatocellular carcinoma. Gut Liver. 2019;13:227–299. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Kim BH, Park JW. Epidemiology of liver cancer in South Korea. Clin Mol Hepatol. 2018;24:1–9. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Dasgupta P, Henshaw C, Youlden DR, Clark PJ, Aitken JF, Baade PD. Global trends in incidence rates of primary adult liver cancers: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Front Oncol. 2020;10:171. - PMC - PubMed