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. 2022 Aug 15;22(1):1550.
doi: 10.1186/s12889-022-13939-7.

Space-time dynamics regression models to assess variations of composite index for anthropometric failure across the administrative zones in Ethiopia

Haile Mekonnen Fenta  1 , Temesgen Zewotir  2 , Essey Kebede Muluneh  3
Affiliations

Space-time dynamics regression models to assess variations of composite index for anthropometric failure across the administrative zones in Ethiopia

Haile Mekonnen Fenta et al. BMC Public Health. .

Abstract

Background: A single anthropometric index such as stunting, wasting, or underweight does not show the holistic picture of under-five children's undernutrition status. To alleviate this problem, we adopted a multifaceted single index known as the composite index for anthropometric failure (CIAF). Using this undernutrition index, we investigated the disparities of Ethiopian under-five children's undernutrition status in space and time.

Methods: Data for analysis were extracted from the Ethiopian Demographic and Health Surveys (EDHSs). The space-time dynamics models were formulated to explore the effects of different covariates on undernutrition among children under five in 72 administrative zones in Ethiopia.

Results: The general nested spatial-temporal dynamic model with spatial and temporal lags autoregressive components was found to be the most adequate (AIC = -409.33, R2 = 96.01) model. According to the model results, the increase in the percentage of breastfeeding mothers in the zone decreases the CIAF rates of children in the zone. Similarly, the increase in the percentages of parental education, and mothers' nutritional status in the zones decreases the CIAF rate in the zone. On the hand, increased percentages of households with unimproved water access, unimproved sanitation facilities, deprivation of women's autonomy, unemployment of women, and lower wealth index contributed to the increased CIAF rate in the zone.

Conclusion: The CIAF risk factors are spatially and temporally correlated across 72 administrative zones in Ethiopia. There exist geographical differences in CIAF among the zones, which are influenced by spatial neighborhoods of the zone and temporal lags within the zone. Hence these findings emphasize the need to take the spatial neighborhood and historical/temporal contexts into account when planning CIAF prevention.

Keywords: Adjusted relative risk; Dynamic models; Lag effect; Neighborhood effect; Queen contiguity; Spatial autocorrelation; Spatiotemporal models.

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Conflict of interest statement

We, the authors, declare that we have no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Locations of the 72 administrative divisions (zones) of Ethiopia: a Regions; b administrative zones of the study area (Source: Authors)
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
The space–time dynamic models. GNS: General Nesting Spatial model; SDM: Spatial Durbin Model; SAR: Spatial Autoregressive model; SEM: Spatial Error Model.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Observed prevalence of CIAF at zone-level among children under five years old in Ethiopia by survey years
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
The estimated relative CIAF risk in Ethiopian administrative zones from 2000 to 2016
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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