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Review
. 2022 Dec:29:100563.
doi: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2022.100563. Epub 2022 Aug 11.

COVID-19 collaborative modelling for policy response in the Philippines, Malaysia and Vietnam

Angus Hughes  1 , Romain Ragonnet  1 , Pavithra Jayasundara  1 , Hoang-Anh Ngo  2   3 , Elvira de Lara-Tuprio  4 , Maria Regina Justina Estuar  5 , Timothy Robin Teng  4 , Law Kian Boon  6 , Kalaiarasu M Peariasamy  6 , Zhuo-Lin Chong  7 , Izzuna Mudla M Ghazali  8 , Greg J Fox  9 , Thu-Anh Nguyen  2   9 , Linh-Vi Le  10 , Milinda Abayawardana  1 , David Shipman  1 , Emma S McBryde  11 , Michael T Meehan  11 , Jamie M Caldwell  12 , James M Trauer  1
Affiliations
Review

COVID-19 collaborative modelling for policy response in the Philippines, Malaysia and Vietnam

Angus Hughes et al. Lancet Reg Health West Pac. 2022 Dec.
No abstract available

Keywords: COVID-19; Modelling; Policy; Western Pacific.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflicts of interest. The modelling work was supported by the World Health Organization Regional Office for the Western Pacific to provide modelling advice to Member States. Authors HAN and TAN were supported by funding from the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT), Australia.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Epidemic curves over the course of the pandemic for a. the Philippines, b. Malaysia and c. Viet Nam. Curves show the 7-day moving average of new cases per million population as of 4 July 2022. Daily reported case data for each country sourced from the COVID-19 data repositry made available by the Centre for Systems Science and Engineering at John Hopkins University. Note the difference in y-axis scales. Grey dashed lines indicate vaccination coverage milestones. δ = Date of first day of fortnightly reporting for first Delta case in each country by covariants.org. o = Date of first day of fortnightly reporting for first Omicron case in each country by Covariants.org. Covariants.org utilises genomic sequences shared via GISAID, the global data science initiative., Start = commencement of vaccine rollout in the general population (estimated as the first date that population coverage was reported), 50% = 50% 2-dose coverage and 80% = 80% 2-dose coverage. 80% coverage not shown for Philippines, as 2-dose coverage less than 80% as of 4 July 2022.All estimates use whole population estimates as the denominator to facilitate comparison between countries and avoid issues with policy changes in age-specific vaccine eligibility over time. Vaccine coverage data sourced from Data on COVID-19 vaccinations, made available by Our World in Data.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Illustration of code and simple visualisation of construction of a basic Susceptible-Infected-Exposed model using the Summer package, which provides a domain-specific syntax for infectious disease modelling. Summer underpins model construction using the AuTuMN platform (Summer documentation (summerepi.com)). Although actual models are typically more complex, the underlying principle with which we construct compartment models is demonstrated.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Description of workflow for modelling collaboration indicating; key collaborators, sharing of data and information and feedback. IATF STWG DA = The Sub-Technical Working Group on Data Analytics of the Inter-Agency Task Force for Emerging Infectious Diseases, DOH = Department of Health, MaHTAS = The Malaysian Health Technology Assessment Section, Ministry of Health, ICR-(NIH) = Institute for Clinical Research, National Institute of Health, IKU-(NIH) = Institute for Public Health, National Institute of Health.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Example of modelling projections to support policy decisions. Figure shows projected hospital occupancy in the Philippines National Capital Region under various booster vaccination scenarios. We consider monthly booster vaccination rates of 200,000 (black lines), 500,000 (blue lines) and 1,000,000 (red lines). Scenarios assuming uniform booster allocation across all age groups are shown with solid lines. Scenarios where older individuals are prioritised for booster vaccination are shown with dashed lines.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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