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. 2022 Aug 19;22(1):1059.
doi: 10.1186/s12913-022-08447-8.

Modelling vaccination capacity at mass vaccination hubs and general practice clinics: a simulation study

Mark Hanly  1 , Tim Churches  2   3 , Oisín Fitzgerald  4 , Ian Caterson  5   6 , Chandini Raina MacIntyre  7 , Louisa Jorm  4
Affiliations

Modelling vaccination capacity at mass vaccination hubs and general practice clinics: a simulation study

Mark Hanly et al. BMC Health Serv Res. .

Abstract

Background: COVID-19 mass vaccination programs place an additional burden on healthcare services. We aim to model the queueing process at vaccination sites to inform service delivery.

Methods: We use stochastic queue network models to simulate queue dynamics in larger mass vaccination hubs and smaller general practice (GP) clinics. We estimate waiting times and daily capacity based on a range of assumptions about appointment schedules, service times and staffing and stress-test these models to assess the impact of increased demand and staff shortages. We also provide an interactive applet, allowing users to explore vaccine administration under their own assumptions.

Results: Based on our assumed service times, the daily throughput for an eight-hour clinic at a mass vaccination hub ranged from 500 doses for a small hub to 1400 doses for a large hub. For GP clinics, the estimated daily throughput ranged from about 100 doses for a small practice to almost 300 doses for a large practice. What-if scenario analysis showed that sites with higher staff numbers were more robust to system pressures and mass vaccination sites were more robust than GP clinics.

Conclusions: With the requirement for ongoing COVID-19 booster shots, mass vaccination is likely to be a continuing feature of healthcare delivery. Different vaccine sites are useful for reaching different populations and maximising coverage. Stochastic queue networks offer a flexible and computationally efficient approach to simulate vaccination queues and estimate waiting times and daily throughput to inform service delivery.

Keywords: COVID-19; Health services research; Queues; Stochastic network models; Vaccination.

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Conflict of interest statement

CRM has consulted for or been on advisory boards on COVID-19 vaccines for Seqirus, Janssen and Astrazeneca. No other authors have a competing interest to declare.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Queue networks for (A) mass vaccination hubs and (B) GP vaccination clinics
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Estimated processing times for (A) mass vaccination hubs and (B) GP clinics with low, medium and high staffing capacity using the baseline model specifications
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Estimated daily throughput from 20 simulations for (A) mass vaccination hubs and (B) GP clinics with low, medium and high staffing capacity using the baseline model specifications
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Estimated processing time with increasing arrivals by site size for (A) mass vaccination hubs and (B) GP vaccination clinics
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
Estimated processing time with decreasing staff numbers by site size for (A) mass vaccination hubs and (B) GP vaccination clinics
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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