Predicting attitudinal and behavioral responses to COVID-19 pandemic using machine learning

Tomislav Pavlović¹, Flavio Azevedo², Koustav De³, Julián C Riaño-Moreno⁴, Marina Maglić¹, Theofilos Gkinopoulos⁵, Patricio Andreas Donnelly-Kehoe⁶, César Payán-Gómez⁷, Guanxiong Huang⁸, Jaroslaw Kantorowicz⁹, Michèle D Birtel¹⁰, Philipp Schönegger¹¹, Valerio Capraro¹², Hernando Santamaría-García¹³, Meltem Yucel¹⁴, Agustin Ibanez¹⁵, Steve Rathje¹⁶, Erik Wetter¹⁷, Dragan Stanojević¹⁸, Jan-Willem van Prooijen¹⁹, Eugenia Hesse²⁰, Christian T Elbaek²¹, Renata Franc¹, Zoran Pavlović²², Panagiotis Mitkidis²¹, Aleksandra Cichocka²³, Michele Gelfand²⁴, Mark Alfano²⁵, Robert M Ross²⁵, Hallgeir Sjåstad²⁶, John B Nezlek²⁷, Aleksandra Cislak²⁸, Patricia Lockwood²⁹, Koen Abts³⁰, Elena Agadullina³¹, David M Amodio³², Matthew A J Apps²⁹, John Jamir Benzon Aruta³³, Sahba Besharati³⁴, Alexander Bor³⁵, Becky Choma³⁶, William Cunningham³⁷, Waqas Ejaz³⁸, Harry Farmer³⁹, Andrej Findor⁴⁰, Biljana Gjoneska⁴¹, Estrella Gualda⁴², Toan L D Huynh⁴³, Mostak Ahamed Imran⁴⁴, Jacob Israelashvili⁴⁵, Elena Kantorowicz-Reznichenko⁴⁶, André Krouwel⁴⁷, Yordan Kutiyski⁴⁸, Michael Laakasuo⁴⁹, Claus Lamm⁵⁰, Jonathan Levy⁵¹, Caroline Leygue⁵², Ming-Jen Lin⁵³, Mohammad Sabbir Mansoor⁵⁴, Antoine Marie³⁵, Lewend Mayiwar⁵⁵, Honorata Mazepus⁵⁶, Cillian McHugh⁵⁷, Andreas Olsson⁵⁸, Tobias Otterbring⁵⁹, Dominic Packer⁶⁰, Jussi Palomäki⁴⁹, Anat Perry⁴⁵, Michael Bang Petersen³⁵, Arathy Puthillam⁶¹, Tobias Rothmund⁶², Petra C Schmid⁶³, David Stadelmann⁶⁴, Augustin Stoica⁶⁵, Drozdstoy Stoyanov⁶⁶, Kristina Stoyanova⁶⁷, Shruti Tewari⁶⁸, Bojan Todosijević⁶⁹, Benno Torgler⁷⁰, Manos Tsakiris⁷¹, Hans H Tung⁷², Radu Gabriel Umbreș⁷³, Edmunds Vanags⁷⁴, Madalina Vlasceanu⁷⁵, Andrew J Vonasch⁷⁶, Yucheng Zhang⁷⁷, Mohcine Abad⁷⁸, Eli Adler⁴⁵, Hamza Alaoui Mdarhri⁷⁸, Benedict Antazo⁷⁹, F Ceren Ay⁸⁰, Mouhamadou El Hady Ba⁸¹, Sergio Barbosa⁸², Brock Bastian⁸³, Anton Berg⁴⁹, Michał Białek⁸⁴, Ennio Bilancini⁸⁵, Natalia Bogatyreva⁸⁶, Leonardo Boncinelli⁸⁷, Jonathan E Booth⁸⁸, Sylvie Borau⁸⁹, Ondrej Buchel⁹⁰, Chrissie Ferreira de Carvalho⁹¹, Tatiana Celadin⁹², Chiara Cerami⁹³, Hom Nath Chalise⁹⁴, Xiaojun Cheng⁹⁵, Luca Cian⁹⁶, Kate Cockcroft³⁴, Jane Conway⁹⁷, Mateo A Córdoba-Delgado⁹⁸, Chiara Crespi⁹⁹, Marie Crouzevialle⁶³, Jo Cutler¹⁰⁰, Marzena Cypryańska²⁷, Justyna Dabrowska¹⁰¹, Victoria H Davis¹⁰², John Paul Minda¹⁰³, Pamala N Dayley¹⁰⁴, Sylvain Delouvée¹⁰⁵, Ognjan Denkovski¹⁰⁶, Guillaume Dezecache¹⁰⁷, Nathan A Dhaliwal¹⁰⁸, Alelie Diato¹⁰⁹, Roberto Di Paolo⁸⁵, Uwe Dulleck¹¹⁰, Jānis Ekmanis¹¹¹, Tom W Etienne¹¹², Hapsa Hossain Farhana¹¹³, Fahima Farkhari¹¹⁴, Kristijan Fidanovski¹¹⁵, Terry Flew¹¹⁶, Shona Fraser¹¹⁷, Raymond Boadi Frempong⁶⁴, Jonathan Fugelsang¹¹⁸, Jessica Gale⁷⁶, E Begoña García-Navarro¹¹⁹, Prasad Garladinne⁶⁸, Kurt Gray¹²⁰, Siobhán M Griffin⁵⁷, Bjarki Gronfeldt²³, June Gruber¹²¹, Eran Halperin⁴⁵, Volo Herzon⁴⁹, Matej Hruška⁴⁰, Matthias F C Hudecek¹²², Ozan Isler¹¹⁰, Simon Jangard⁵⁸, Frederik Jørgensen³⁵, Oleksandra Keudel¹²³, Lina Koppel¹²⁴, Mika Koverola⁴⁹, Anton Kunnari¹²⁵, Josh Leota¹²⁶, Eva Lermer¹²⁷, Chunyun Li⁸⁸, Chiara Longoni¹²⁸, Darragh McCashin¹²⁹, Igor Mikloušić¹, Juliana Molina-Paredes¹³⁰, César Monroy-Fonseca¹³¹, Elena Morales-Marente¹³², David Moreau¹³³, Rafał Muda¹³⁴, Annalisa Myer¹³⁵, Kyle Nash¹³⁶, Jonas P Nitschke⁵⁰, Matthew S Nurse¹³⁷, Victoria Oldemburgo de Mello³⁷, Maria Soledad Palacios-Galvez¹³², Yafeng Pan¹³⁸, Zsófia Papp¹³⁹, Philip Pärnamets⁵⁸, Mariola Paruzel-Czachura¹⁴⁰, Silva Perander¹⁴¹, Michael Pitman³⁴, Ali Raza¹⁴², Gabriel Gaudencio Rêgo¹⁴³, Claire Robertson¹⁴⁴, Iván Rodríguez-Pascual¹³², Teemu Saikkonen¹⁴⁵, Octavio Salvador-Ginez¹⁴⁶, Waldir M Sampaio¹⁴³, Gaia Chiara Santi¹⁴⁷, David Schultner¹⁴⁸, Enid Schutte³⁴, Andy Scott¹³⁵, Ahmed Skali¹⁴⁹, Anna Stefaniak¹⁵⁰, Anni Sternisko¹⁴⁴, Brent Strickland¹⁵¹, Jeffrey P Thomas⁸⁸, Gustav Tinghög¹²³, Iris J Traast¹⁵², Raffaele Tucciarelli¹⁵³, Michael Tyrala¹⁵⁴, Nick D Ungson¹⁵⁵, Mete Sefa Uysal¹⁵⁶, Dirk Van Rooy¹⁵⁷, Daniel Västfjäll¹⁵⁸, Joana B Vieira⁵⁸, Christian von Sikorski¹⁵⁹, Alexander C Walker¹¹⁷, Jennifer Watermeyer¹⁶⁰, Robin Willardt⁶³, Michael J A Wohl¹⁵⁰, Adrian Dominik Wójcik¹⁶¹, Kaidi Wu¹⁶², Yuki Yamada¹⁶³, Onurcan Yilmaz¹⁶⁴, Kumar Yogeeswaran⁷⁶, Carolin-Theresa Ziemer¹⁶⁵, Rolf A Zwaan¹⁶⁶, Paulo Sergio Boggio¹⁴³, Ashley Whillans¹⁶⁷, Paul A M Van Lange¹⁹, Rajib Prasad¹⁶⁸, Michal Onderco¹⁶⁹, Cathal O'Madagain⁷⁸, Tarik Nesh-Nash¹⁷⁰, Oscar Moreda Laguna⁴⁸, Emily Kubin¹⁵⁹, Mert Gümren¹⁷¹, Ali Fenwick¹⁷², Arhan S Ertan¹⁷³, Michael J Bernstein¹⁷⁴, Hanane Amara¹⁷¹, Jay Joseph Van Bavel¹⁴⁴

Affiliations

¹ Institute of Social Sciences Ivo Pilar, Zagreb, Croatia.
² Department of Psychology, Cambridge University, Cambridge, UK.
³ Department of Finance and Quantitative Methods, Gatton College of Business and Economics, University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY, USA.
⁴ Faculty of Medicine, Cooperative University of Colombia, Villavicencio, Meta, Colombia and Department of bioethics, El Bosque University, Bogotá D.C. Colombia.
⁵ Department of Philosophy and Social Studies, University of Crete, Rethymnon, Crete, Greece.
⁶ Department of Research and Development, Kozaca SA, Rosario, Santa Fe, Argentina.
⁷ Direccion Academica Sede la Paz,Universidad Nacional de Colombia - Sede de La Paz, Cesar, Colombia.
⁸ Department of Media and Communication, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon Tong, Hong Kong.
⁹ Department of Economics, Institute of Security and Global Affairs, Leiden University, The Hague, Netherlands.
¹⁰ School of Human Sciences, University of Greenwich, London, UK.
¹¹ Department of Philosophy, School of Economics and Finance, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, UK.
¹² Department of Economics, Middlesex University London, London, UK.
¹³ Department of Psychiatry, Pontifical Xavierian University, Bogotá, Colombia.
¹⁴ Department of Psychology and Neuroscience, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA.
¹⁵ Latin American Brain Health Institute (BrainLat), Universidad Adolfo Ibañez, Santiago, Peñalolén, Chile.
¹⁶ Department of Psychology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
¹⁷ Department of Business Administration, Stockholm School of Economics, Stockholm, Sweden.
¹⁸ Department of Sociology, Faculty of Philosophy, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia.
¹⁹ Department of Experimental and Applied Psychology, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands.
²⁰ Departamento de Matemática y Ciencias, Universidad de San Andres, Victoria, Buenos Aires, Argentina.
²¹ Department of Management, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark.
²² Department of Psychology, Faculty of Philosophy, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia.
²³ School of Psychology, University of Kent, Canterbury, UK.
²⁴ Stanford Graduate School of Business, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA.
²⁵ Department of Philosophy, Macquarie University, Macquarie Park, New South Wales, Australia.
²⁶ Department of Strategy and Management, Norwegian School of Economics, Bergen, Norway.
²⁷ Institute of Psychology, Center for Climate Action and Social Transformations, SWPS, University of Social Sciences and Humanities, Warsaw, Poland.
²⁸ Institute of Psychology, SWPS University of Social Sciences and Humanities, Warsaw, Poland.
²⁹ Centre for Human Brain Health,School of Psychology, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.
³⁰ Centre for Sociological Research, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Leuven, Belgium.
³¹ Faculty of Psychology, Higher School of Economics University, Moscow, Russia.
³² Department of Psychology, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands.
³³ Department of Psychology, Sunway University, Petaling Jaya, Selangor, Malaysia.
³⁴ Department of Psychology, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, Republic of South Africa.
³⁵ Department of Political Science, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark.
³⁶ Department of Psychology, Toronto Metropolitan University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
³⁷ Department of Psychology, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
³⁸ Department of Mass Communication, National University of Science and Technology (NUST), Islamabad, Islamabad Capital Territory, Pakistan.
³⁹ Department of Psychology, University of Greenwich, London, UK.
⁴⁰ Institute of European Studies and International Relations, Faculty of Social and Economic Sciences, Comenius University, Bratislava, Slovakia.
⁴¹ Macedonian Academy of Sciences and Arts, Skopje, Republic of North Macedonia.
⁴² Department of Sociology, Social Work and Public Health, University of Huelva, Huelva, Spain.
⁴³ Department of Decision Analytics and Risk, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.
⁴⁴ Department of Educational and Counselling Psychology, BRAC Institute of Educational and Development, BRAC University, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
⁴⁵ Department of Psychology, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel.
⁴⁶ Rotterdam Institute of Law and Economics (RILE), Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Netherlands.
⁴⁷ Department of Communication Science, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands.
⁴⁸ Kieskompas (Election Compass), Amsterdam, Netherlands.
⁴⁹ Department of Digital Humanities, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.
⁵⁰ Department of Cognition, Emotion, and Methods in Psychology, University of Vienna, Wien, Austria.
⁵¹ Department of Neuroscience and Biomedical Engineering, Aalto University, Espoo, Finland.
⁵² School of Psychology, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico.
⁵³ Department of Economics, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan.
⁵⁴ HEMS School, Kathmandu, Nepal.
⁵⁵ Department of Leadership and Organizational Behaviour, BI Norwegian Business School, Oslo, Norway.
⁵⁶ Institute of Security and Global Affairs, Leiden University, The Hague, Netherlands.
⁵⁷ Department of Psychology, University of Limerick, Limerick, Ireland.
⁵⁸ Department of Clinical Neuroscience, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.
⁵⁹ Department of Management, University of Agder, Kristiansand, Norway.
⁶⁰ Department of Psychology, Lehigh University, Bethlehem, PA, USA.
⁶¹ Department of Psychology, Monk Prayogshala, Powai, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India.
⁶² Department of Social and Behavioral Science, Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Jena, Germany.
⁶³ Department of Management, Technology, and Economics, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland.
⁶⁴ Chair of Development Economics,University of Bayreuth, Bayreuth, Germany.
⁶⁵ Department of Sociology, National School for Political and Administrative Studies (SNSPA), Bucharest, Romania.
⁶⁶ Department of Psychiatry and Medical Psychology, Medical University, Plovdiv, Bulgaria.
⁶⁷ Division of Translational Neuroscience, Medical University, Plovdiv, Bulgaria.
⁶⁸ Humanities and Social Sciences, Indian Institute of Management, Indore, Madhya Pradesh, India.
⁶⁹ Institute of Social Sciences, Belgrade, Serbia.
⁷⁰ School of Economics and Finance and Centre for Behavioural Economics, Society and Technology (BEST), Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane City, Queensland, Australia.
⁷¹ Department of Psychology, Royal Holloway, University of London, Egham, UK.
⁷² Department of Political Science, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan.
⁷³ Faculty of Political Science, National University of Political Studies and Public Administration, Bucharest, Romania.
⁷⁴ Psychology Department, University of Latvia, Riga, Latvia.
⁷⁵ Department of Psychology, New York University, New York, NY, USA.
⁷⁶ School of Psychology, Speech, and Hearing, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand.
⁷⁷ School of Economics and Management, Hebei University of Technology, Tianjin, China.
⁷⁸ School of Collective Intelligence, Mohammed VI Polytechnic University, Ben Guerir, Morocco.
⁷⁹ Department of Psychology, Jose Rizal University, Mandaluyong, Metro Manila, Philippines.
⁸⁰ Department of Economics, Telenor Research, Fornebu, Norway.
⁸¹ Cheikh Anta Diop University, Dakar, Senegal.
⁸² School of Medicine and Health Sciences, Universidad del Rosario, Bogotá, Colombia.
⁸³ Melbourne School of Psychological Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
⁸⁴ Faculty of Historical and Pedagogical Sciences, University of Wroclaw, Wroclaw, Poland.
⁸⁵ IMT School for Advanced Studies, Lucca, Italy.
⁸⁶ Laboratory for Psychology of Social Inequality, Higher School of Economics University, Moscow, Russia.
⁸⁷ Department of Economics and Management, University of Florence, Florence, Italy.
⁸⁸ Department of Management, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK.
⁸⁹ Department of Marketing, TBS Education, Toulouse, France.
⁹⁰ The Institute for Sociology, Slovak Academy of Sciences, Bratislava, Slovakia.
⁹¹ Department of Psychology, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianopolis, Brazil.
⁹² Department of Economics, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy.
⁹³ IUSS Cognitive Neuroscience Center, University School for Advanced Studies, Pavia, Italy.
⁹⁴ Central Department of Population Studies, Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu, Nepal.
⁹⁵ School of Psychology, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen, China.
⁹⁶ Department of Marketing, Darden School of Business, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
⁹⁷ MRC Social, Genetic and Developmental Psychiatry Centre,Institute for Advanced Study in Toulouse, Université Toulouse 1 Capitole, Toulouse Cedex 6, France.
⁹⁸ Faculty of Medicine, Pontifical Xavierian University, Bogotá, Colombia.
⁹⁹ U.O. Rho, Fondazione Luigi Clerici, Rho, Italy.
¹⁰⁰ School of Psychology, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.
¹⁰¹ Department of Trade and Market Institutions, Cracow University of Economics, Kraków, Poland.
¹⁰² Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
¹⁰³ Department of Psychology, Western University, London, Ontario, Canada.
¹⁰⁴ Department of Psychology, University of California - Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
¹⁰⁵ Department of Psychology, Université Rennes 2, Rennes, France.
¹⁰⁶ Department of Communication Science, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands.
¹⁰⁷ Université Clermont Auvergne LAPSCO, CNRS, Clermont-Ferrand, France.
¹⁰⁸ UBC Sauder School of Business, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.
¹⁰⁹ Teacher Education Department, Cavite State University, General Trias, Cavite, Philippines.
¹¹⁰ School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane City, Queensland, Australia.
¹¹¹ Faculty of Education, Psychology and Art, University of Latvia, Riga, Latvia.
¹¹² Kieskompas (Election Compass), Amsterdam, Netherlands and Department of Political Science & Annenberg School for Communication, University of Pennsylvania, PA, USA.
¹¹³ National Institute for the Intellectually Disabled and Autistic (NIIDA), Society for the Welfare of the Intellectually Disabled (SWID Bangladesh), Dhaka, Bangladesh.
¹¹⁴ Department of Psychology, University of Münster, Münster, Germany.
¹¹⁵ Department of Social Policy and Intervention, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
¹¹⁶ Department of Media and Communications, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
¹¹⁷ Medical School, Department of Psychiatry, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, Republic of South Africa.
¹¹⁸ Department of Psychology, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada.
¹¹⁹ Department of Nursing, University of Huelva, Huelva, Spain.
¹²⁰ Department of Psychology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA.
¹²¹ Department of Psychology and Neuroscience, College of Arts and Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA.
¹²² Department of Experimental Psychology, University of Regensburg, Regensburg, Germany.
¹²³ Kyiv School of Economics, Kyiv, Ukraine.
¹²⁴ Department of Management and Engineering, Linköping University, Linköping, Sweden.
¹²⁵ University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.
¹²⁶ Turner Institute for Brain and Mental Health, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia.
¹²⁷ Department of Business and Media Psychology, Ansbach University of Applied Sciences, Ansbach, Germany.
¹²⁸ Department of Marketing, Boston University, Questrom School of Business, Boston, MA, USA.
¹²⁹ School of Psychology, Dublin City University, Dublin, Ireland.
¹³⁰ Pontifical Xavierian University, Bogotá, Colombia.
¹³¹ Seele Neuroscience, Mexico City, Mexico.
¹³² COIDESO-Research Center of Contemporary Thinking and Innovation for Social Development, University of Huelva, Huelva, Spain.
¹³³ School of Psychology, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand.
¹³⁴ Faculty of Economics, Maria Curie Sklodowska University, Lublin, Poland.
¹³⁵ Department of Psychology, City University of New York (CUNY) Graduate Center, New York, NY, USA.
¹³⁶ Department of Psychology, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada.
¹³⁷ Australian National Centre for the Public Awareness of Science,Australian National University, Canberra ACT, Australia.
¹³⁸ Department of Psychology and Behavioral Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China.
¹³⁹ Department for Political Behavior, Centre for Social Sciences, Budapest, Hungary.
¹⁴⁰ Institute of Psychology, University of Silesia in Katowice, Katowice, Poland.
¹⁴¹ Department of Computer Science, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.
¹⁴² Department of Computer Science, Institute of Cognitive Science, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA.
¹⁴³ Centro de Ciências Biológicas e da Saúde,Mackenzie Presbyterian University, São Paul, Brazil.
¹⁴⁴ Department of Psychology & Neural Science, New York University, New York, NY, USA.
¹⁴⁵ Department of Biology, Biodiversity Unit, University of Turku, Turku, Finland.
¹⁴⁶ School of Psychology, Environmental Psychology Department, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico.
¹⁴⁷ Department of Humanities and Life Sciences, University School for Advanced Studies, Pavia, Italy.
¹⁴⁸ Department of Social Psychology, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands.
¹⁴⁹ Department of Global Economics and Management, University of Groningen, Groningen, Netherlands.
¹⁵⁰ Department of Psychology, Carleton University, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada.
¹⁵¹ PLS, ENS-Ulm, Department d'Etudes Cognitives, Paris, France.
¹⁵² Social Psychology Department, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands.
¹⁵³ Institute of Cognitive Neuroscience, University College London, London, UK.
¹⁵⁴ Department of Asian and International Studies, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon Tong, Hong Kong.
¹⁵⁵ Department of Psychology, Susquehanna University, Selinsgrove, PA, USA.
¹⁵⁶ Department of Social Psychology, Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Jena, Germany.
¹⁵⁷ Department of Design, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium.
¹⁵⁸ Department of Behavioral Sciences and Learning, Linköping University, Linköping, Sweden.
¹⁵⁹ Department of Psychology, University of Koblenz-Landau, Landau, Germany.
¹⁶⁰ Department of Speech Pathology and Audiology, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, Republic of South Africa.
¹⁶¹ Institute of Psychology, Nicolaus Copernicus University, Torun, Poland.
¹⁶² Rady School of Management, University of California, San Diego, CA, USA.
¹⁶³ Faculty of Arts and Science, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan.
¹⁶⁴ Department of Psychology, Kadir Has University, Fatih, Istanbul, Turkey.
¹⁶⁵ Department of Communication and Media Use, Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Jena, Germany.
¹⁶⁶ Department of Psychology, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Netherlands.
¹⁶⁷ Faculty of Negotiations, Organizations and Markets, Harvard Business School, Boston, MA, USA.
¹⁶⁸ Department of Economics, Vidyasagar College For Women, Kolkata, West Bengal, India.
¹⁶⁹ Department of Public Administration and Sociology, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Netherlands.
¹⁷⁰ Impact For Development, Casablanca, Morocco.
¹⁷¹ Department of Economics, Koc University, Sarıyer, Istanbul, Turkey.
¹⁷² Hult International Business School, Dubai, United Arab Emirates.
¹⁷³ Department of International Trade, Bogazici University, Besiktas, Istanbul, Turkey.
¹⁷⁴ Department of Psychological and Social Sciences, Penn State University Abington College, Abington, PA, USA.

PMID: 35990802
PMCID: PMC9381137
DOI: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgac093

Predicting attitudinal and behavioral responses to COVID-19 pandemic using machine learning

Tomislav Pavlović et al. PNAS Nexus. 2022.

. 2022 Jul 5;1(3):pgac093.

doi: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgac093. eCollection 2022 Jul.

Authors

Affiliations

¹ Institute of Social Sciences Ivo Pilar, Zagreb, Croatia.
² Department of Psychology, Cambridge University, Cambridge, UK.
³ Department of Finance and Quantitative Methods, Gatton College of Business and Economics, University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY, USA.
⁴ Faculty of Medicine, Cooperative University of Colombia, Villavicencio, Meta, Colombia and Department of bioethics, El Bosque University, Bogotá D.C. Colombia.
⁵ Department of Philosophy and Social Studies, University of Crete, Rethymnon, Crete, Greece.
⁶ Department of Research and Development, Kozaca SA, Rosario, Santa Fe, Argentina.
⁷ Direccion Academica Sede la Paz,Universidad Nacional de Colombia - Sede de La Paz, Cesar, Colombia.
⁸ Department of Media and Communication, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon Tong, Hong Kong.
⁹ Department of Economics, Institute of Security and Global Affairs, Leiden University, The Hague, Netherlands.
¹⁰ School of Human Sciences, University of Greenwich, London, UK.
¹¹ Department of Philosophy, School of Economics and Finance, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, UK.
¹² Department of Economics, Middlesex University London, London, UK.
¹³ Department of Psychiatry, Pontifical Xavierian University, Bogotá, Colombia.
¹⁴ Department of Psychology and Neuroscience, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA.
¹⁵ Latin American Brain Health Institute (BrainLat), Universidad Adolfo Ibañez, Santiago, Peñalolén, Chile.
¹⁶ Department of Psychology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
¹⁷ Department of Business Administration, Stockholm School of Economics, Stockholm, Sweden.
¹⁸ Department of Sociology, Faculty of Philosophy, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia.
¹⁹ Department of Experimental and Applied Psychology, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands.
²⁰ Departamento de Matemática y Ciencias, Universidad de San Andres, Victoria, Buenos Aires, Argentina.
²¹ Department of Management, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark.
²² Department of Psychology, Faculty of Philosophy, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia.
²³ School of Psychology, University of Kent, Canterbury, UK.
²⁴ Stanford Graduate School of Business, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA.
²⁵ Department of Philosophy, Macquarie University, Macquarie Park, New South Wales, Australia.
²⁶ Department of Strategy and Management, Norwegian School of Economics, Bergen, Norway.
²⁷ Institute of Psychology, Center for Climate Action and Social Transformations, SWPS, University of Social Sciences and Humanities, Warsaw, Poland.
²⁸ Institute of Psychology, SWPS University of Social Sciences and Humanities, Warsaw, Poland.
²⁹ Centre for Human Brain Health,School of Psychology, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.
³⁰ Centre for Sociological Research, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Leuven, Belgium.
³¹ Faculty of Psychology, Higher School of Economics University, Moscow, Russia.
³² Department of Psychology, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands.
³³ Department of Psychology, Sunway University, Petaling Jaya, Selangor, Malaysia.
³⁴ Department of Psychology, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, Republic of South Africa.
³⁵ Department of Political Science, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark.
³⁶ Department of Psychology, Toronto Metropolitan University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
³⁷ Department of Psychology, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
³⁸ Department of Mass Communication, National University of Science and Technology (NUST), Islamabad, Islamabad Capital Territory, Pakistan.
³⁹ Department of Psychology, University of Greenwich, London, UK.
⁴⁰ Institute of European Studies and International Relations, Faculty of Social and Economic Sciences, Comenius University, Bratislava, Slovakia.
⁴¹ Macedonian Academy of Sciences and Arts, Skopje, Republic of North Macedonia.
⁴² Department of Sociology, Social Work and Public Health, University of Huelva, Huelva, Spain.
⁴³ Department of Decision Analytics and Risk, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.
⁴⁴ Department of Educational and Counselling Psychology, BRAC Institute of Educational and Development, BRAC University, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
⁴⁵ Department of Psychology, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel.
⁴⁶ Rotterdam Institute of Law and Economics (RILE), Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Netherlands.
⁴⁷ Department of Communication Science, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands.
⁴⁸ Kieskompas (Election Compass), Amsterdam, Netherlands.
⁴⁹ Department of Digital Humanities, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.
⁵⁰ Department of Cognition, Emotion, and Methods in Psychology, University of Vienna, Wien, Austria.
⁵¹ Department of Neuroscience and Biomedical Engineering, Aalto University, Espoo, Finland.
⁵² School of Psychology, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico.
⁵³ Department of Economics, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan.
⁵⁴ HEMS School, Kathmandu, Nepal.
⁵⁵ Department of Leadership and Organizational Behaviour, BI Norwegian Business School, Oslo, Norway.
⁵⁶ Institute of Security and Global Affairs, Leiden University, The Hague, Netherlands.
⁵⁷ Department of Psychology, University of Limerick, Limerick, Ireland.
⁵⁸ Department of Clinical Neuroscience, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.
⁵⁹ Department of Management, University of Agder, Kristiansand, Norway.
⁶⁰ Department of Psychology, Lehigh University, Bethlehem, PA, USA.
⁶¹ Department of Psychology, Monk Prayogshala, Powai, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India.
⁶² Department of Social and Behavioral Science, Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Jena, Germany.
⁶³ Department of Management, Technology, and Economics, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland.
⁶⁴ Chair of Development Economics,University of Bayreuth, Bayreuth, Germany.
⁶⁵ Department of Sociology, National School for Political and Administrative Studies (SNSPA), Bucharest, Romania.
⁶⁶ Department of Psychiatry and Medical Psychology, Medical University, Plovdiv, Bulgaria.
⁶⁷ Division of Translational Neuroscience, Medical University, Plovdiv, Bulgaria.
⁶⁸ Humanities and Social Sciences, Indian Institute of Management, Indore, Madhya Pradesh, India.
⁶⁹ Institute of Social Sciences, Belgrade, Serbia.
⁷⁰ School of Economics and Finance and Centre for Behavioural Economics, Society and Technology (BEST), Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane City, Queensland, Australia.
⁷¹ Department of Psychology, Royal Holloway, University of London, Egham, UK.
⁷² Department of Political Science, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan.
⁷³ Faculty of Political Science, National University of Political Studies and Public Administration, Bucharest, Romania.
⁷⁴ Psychology Department, University of Latvia, Riga, Latvia.
⁷⁵ Department of Psychology, New York University, New York, NY, USA.
⁷⁶ School of Psychology, Speech, and Hearing, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand.
⁷⁷ School of Economics and Management, Hebei University of Technology, Tianjin, China.
⁷⁸ School of Collective Intelligence, Mohammed VI Polytechnic University, Ben Guerir, Morocco.
⁷⁹ Department of Psychology, Jose Rizal University, Mandaluyong, Metro Manila, Philippines.
⁸⁰ Department of Economics, Telenor Research, Fornebu, Norway.
⁸¹ Cheikh Anta Diop University, Dakar, Senegal.
⁸² School of Medicine and Health Sciences, Universidad del Rosario, Bogotá, Colombia.
⁸³ Melbourne School of Psychological Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
⁸⁴ Faculty of Historical and Pedagogical Sciences, University of Wroclaw, Wroclaw, Poland.
⁸⁵ IMT School for Advanced Studies, Lucca, Italy.
⁸⁶ Laboratory for Psychology of Social Inequality, Higher School of Economics University, Moscow, Russia.
⁸⁷ Department of Economics and Management, University of Florence, Florence, Italy.
⁸⁸ Department of Management, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK.
⁸⁹ Department of Marketing, TBS Education, Toulouse, France.
⁹⁰ The Institute for Sociology, Slovak Academy of Sciences, Bratislava, Slovakia.
⁹¹ Department of Psychology, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianopolis, Brazil.
⁹² Department of Economics, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy.
⁹³ IUSS Cognitive Neuroscience Center, University School for Advanced Studies, Pavia, Italy.
⁹⁴ Central Department of Population Studies, Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu, Nepal.
⁹⁵ School of Psychology, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen, China.
⁹⁶ Department of Marketing, Darden School of Business, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
⁹⁷ MRC Social, Genetic and Developmental Psychiatry Centre,Institute for Advanced Study in Toulouse, Université Toulouse 1 Capitole, Toulouse Cedex 6, France.
⁹⁸ Faculty of Medicine, Pontifical Xavierian University, Bogotá, Colombia.
⁹⁹ U.O. Rho, Fondazione Luigi Clerici, Rho, Italy.
¹⁰⁰ School of Psychology, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.
¹⁰¹ Department of Trade and Market Institutions, Cracow University of Economics, Kraków, Poland.
¹⁰² Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
¹⁰³ Department of Psychology, Western University, London, Ontario, Canada.
¹⁰⁴ Department of Psychology, University of California - Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
¹⁰⁵ Department of Psychology, Université Rennes 2, Rennes, France.
¹⁰⁶ Department of Communication Science, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands.
¹⁰⁷ Université Clermont Auvergne LAPSCO, CNRS, Clermont-Ferrand, France.
¹⁰⁸ UBC Sauder School of Business, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.
¹⁰⁹ Teacher Education Department, Cavite State University, General Trias, Cavite, Philippines.
¹¹⁰ School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane City, Queensland, Australia.
¹¹¹ Faculty of Education, Psychology and Art, University of Latvia, Riga, Latvia.
¹¹² Kieskompas (Election Compass), Amsterdam, Netherlands and Department of Political Science & Annenberg School for Communication, University of Pennsylvania, PA, USA.
¹¹³ National Institute for the Intellectually Disabled and Autistic (NIIDA), Society for the Welfare of the Intellectually Disabled (SWID Bangladesh), Dhaka, Bangladesh.
¹¹⁴ Department of Psychology, University of Münster, Münster, Germany.
¹¹⁵ Department of Social Policy and Intervention, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
¹¹⁶ Department of Media and Communications, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
¹¹⁷ Medical School, Department of Psychiatry, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, Republic of South Africa.
¹¹⁸ Department of Psychology, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada.
¹¹⁹ Department of Nursing, University of Huelva, Huelva, Spain.
¹²⁰ Department of Psychology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA.
¹²¹ Department of Psychology and Neuroscience, College of Arts and Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA.
¹²² Department of Experimental Psychology, University of Regensburg, Regensburg, Germany.
¹²³ Kyiv School of Economics, Kyiv, Ukraine.
¹²⁴ Department of Management and Engineering, Linköping University, Linköping, Sweden.
¹²⁵ University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.
¹²⁶ Turner Institute for Brain and Mental Health, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia.
¹²⁷ Department of Business and Media Psychology, Ansbach University of Applied Sciences, Ansbach, Germany.
¹²⁸ Department of Marketing, Boston University, Questrom School of Business, Boston, MA, USA.
¹²⁹ School of Psychology, Dublin City University, Dublin, Ireland.
¹³⁰ Pontifical Xavierian University, Bogotá, Colombia.
¹³¹ Seele Neuroscience, Mexico City, Mexico.
¹³² COIDESO-Research Center of Contemporary Thinking and Innovation for Social Development, University of Huelva, Huelva, Spain.
¹³³ School of Psychology, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand.
¹³⁴ Faculty of Economics, Maria Curie Sklodowska University, Lublin, Poland.
¹³⁵ Department of Psychology, City University of New York (CUNY) Graduate Center, New York, NY, USA.
¹³⁶ Department of Psychology, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada.
¹³⁷ Australian National Centre for the Public Awareness of Science,Australian National University, Canberra ACT, Australia.
¹³⁸ Department of Psychology and Behavioral Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China.
¹³⁹ Department for Political Behavior, Centre for Social Sciences, Budapest, Hungary.
¹⁴⁰ Institute of Psychology, University of Silesia in Katowice, Katowice, Poland.
¹⁴¹ Department of Computer Science, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.
¹⁴² Department of Computer Science, Institute of Cognitive Science, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA.
¹⁴³ Centro de Ciências Biológicas e da Saúde,Mackenzie Presbyterian University, São Paul, Brazil.
¹⁴⁴ Department of Psychology & Neural Science, New York University, New York, NY, USA.
¹⁴⁵ Department of Biology, Biodiversity Unit, University of Turku, Turku, Finland.
¹⁴⁶ School of Psychology, Environmental Psychology Department, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico.
¹⁴⁷ Department of Humanities and Life Sciences, University School for Advanced Studies, Pavia, Italy.
¹⁴⁸ Department of Social Psychology, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands.
¹⁴⁹ Department of Global Economics and Management, University of Groningen, Groningen, Netherlands.
¹⁵⁰ Department of Psychology, Carleton University, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada.
¹⁵¹ PLS, ENS-Ulm, Department d'Etudes Cognitives, Paris, France.
¹⁵² Social Psychology Department, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands.
¹⁵³ Institute of Cognitive Neuroscience, University College London, London, UK.
¹⁵⁴ Department of Asian and International Studies, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon Tong, Hong Kong.
¹⁵⁵ Department of Psychology, Susquehanna University, Selinsgrove, PA, USA.
¹⁵⁶ Department of Social Psychology, Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Jena, Germany.
¹⁵⁷ Department of Design, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium.
¹⁵⁸ Department of Behavioral Sciences and Learning, Linköping University, Linköping, Sweden.
¹⁵⁹ Department of Psychology, University of Koblenz-Landau, Landau, Germany.
¹⁶⁰ Department of Speech Pathology and Audiology, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, Republic of South Africa.
¹⁶¹ Institute of Psychology, Nicolaus Copernicus University, Torun, Poland.
¹⁶² Rady School of Management, University of California, San Diego, CA, USA.
¹⁶³ Faculty of Arts and Science, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan.
¹⁶⁴ Department of Psychology, Kadir Has University, Fatih, Istanbul, Turkey.
¹⁶⁵ Department of Communication and Media Use, Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Jena, Germany.
¹⁶⁶ Department of Psychology, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Netherlands.
¹⁶⁷ Faculty of Negotiations, Organizations and Markets, Harvard Business School, Boston, MA, USA.
¹⁶⁸ Department of Economics, Vidyasagar College For Women, Kolkata, West Bengal, India.
¹⁶⁹ Department of Public Administration and Sociology, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Netherlands.
¹⁷⁰ Impact For Development, Casablanca, Morocco.
¹⁷¹ Department of Economics, Koc University, Sarıyer, Istanbul, Turkey.
¹⁷² Hult International Business School, Dubai, United Arab Emirates.
¹⁷³ Department of International Trade, Bogazici University, Besiktas, Istanbul, Turkey.
¹⁷⁴ Department of Psychological and Social Sciences, Penn State University Abington College, Abington, PA, USA.

PMID: 35990802
PMCID: PMC9381137
DOI: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgac093

Abstract

At the beginning of 2020, COVID-19 became a global problem. Despite all the efforts to emphasize the relevance of preventive measures, not everyone adhered to them. Thus, learning more about the characteristics determining attitudinal and behavioral responses to the pandemic is crucial to improving future interventions. In this study, we applied machine learning on the multinational data collected by the International Collaboration on the Social and Moral Psychology of COVID-19 (N = 51,404) to test the predictive efficacy of constructs from social, moral, cognitive, and personality psychology, as well as socio-demographic factors, in the attitudinal and behavioral responses to the pandemic. The results point to several valuable insights. Internalized moral identity provided the most consistent predictive contribution-individuals perceiving moral traits as central to their self-concept reported higher adherence to preventive measures. Similar results were found for morality as cooperation, symbolized moral identity, self-control, open-mindedness, and collective narcissism, while the inverse relationship was evident for the endorsement of conspiracy theories. However, we also found a non-neglible variability in the explained variance and predictive contributions with respect to macro-level factors such as the pandemic stage or cultural region. Overall, the results underscore the importance of morality-related and contextual factors in understanding adherence to public health recommendations during the pandemic.

Keywords: COVID-19; hygiene; policy support; public health measures; social distancing.

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Figures

**Fig. 1.**
Permutation variable importance calculated with respect to representativeness of the samples and stage of the pandemic.

**Fig. 2.**
Partial dependence plots depicting the relationships between our predictors and criteria based on the complete data. Note: red, blue, and green represent avoiding contact, maintaining hygiene, and policy support, respectively.

**Fig. 3.**
Partial dependence plots based on the data reflecting the early stage of pandemic. Note: red, blue, and green represent avoiding contact, maintaining hygiene, and policy support, respectively.

**Fig. 4.**
Partial dependence plots based on the data reflecting the advanced stage of pandemic. Note: red, blue, and green represent avoiding contact, maintaining hygiene, and policy support, respectively.

See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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Predicting attitudinal and behavioral responses to COVID-19 pandemic using machine learning

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Predicting attitudinal and behavioral responses to COVID-19 pandemic using machine learning

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