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. 2022 Oct;28(10):2078-2081.
doi: 10.3201/eid2810.221126. Epub 2022 Aug 22.

Early Estimates of Monkeypox Incubation Period, Generation Time, and Reproduction Number, Italy, May-June 2022

Giorgio Guzzetta, Alessia Mammone, Federica Ferraro, Anna Caraglia, Alessia Rapiti, Valentina Marziano, Piero Poletti, Danilo Cereda, Francesco Vairo, Giovanna Mattei, Francesco Maraglino, Giovanni Rezza, Stefano Merler

Early Estimates of Monkeypox Incubation Period, Generation Time, and Reproduction Number, Italy, May-June 2022

Giorgio Guzzetta et al. Emerg Infect Dis. 2022 Oct.

Abstract

We analyzed the first 255 PCR-confirmed cases of monkeypox in Italy in 2022. Preliminary estimates indicate mean incubation period of 9.1 (95% CI 6.5-10.9) days, mean generation time of 12.5 (95% CI 7.5-17.3) days, and reproduction number among men who have sex with men of 2.43 (95% CI 1.82-3.26).

Keywords: Italy; MPX; MPXV; generation time; incubation period; monkeypox; reproduction number; sexually transmitted infections; viruses.

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Figures

Figure
Figure
Epidemic curve and reproduction number of monkeypox cases in Italy through July 8, 2022. A) Number of cases by date of symptom onset and history of travel in Canary Islands. For 4 persons, the date of symptom onset was unknown. B) Estimate of the net reproduction number over time from the epidemic curve by date of symptom onset. We assumed that all cases with a history of travel to Canary Islands were imported and that all the others were locally transmitted, and we used a generation time distribution with mean 12.5 days. Gray shading indicates the part of the epidemic curve that is possibly incomplete because of diagnostic and reporting delays.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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