Impact of surgical resection for gastrointestinal stromal tumor (GIST) patients with initially diagnosed synchronous hepatic metastases on long-term survival outcomes

Abstract

Background: The effect of surgical resection on the long-term outcome of GIST patients with initially diagnosed synchronous hepatic metastases in the targeted therapy era is still uncertain. The main aims of this study were to investigate the role of surgery in the treatment of these patients and establish clinical predictive models for assessing prognosis.

Methods: We identified these patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database between 2010 and 2018. The selection bias in comparisons was minimized by performing propensity score matching (PSM). The risk factors associated with long-term survival outcomes were identified by a Cox proportional hazards model and thus used to establish the nomograms. Nomograms were validated by concordance indexes (C-indexes), time-dependent receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration plots, and decision curve analyses (DCA).

Results: Of these 523 eligible patients, there were 187 (35.8%) and 336 (64.2%) patients in the surgical and nonsurgical groups, respectively. Multivariate analysis revealed that surgical resection was an independent prognostic factor for OS (hazard ratio [HR] 0.62; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.44-0.88, p = 0.0068) and CSS (HR 0.51; 95% CI 0.33 - 0.77, p = 0.0016). After PSM, it was found that surgical resection still showed significantly improved OS (5-year 54.9% vs 38.8%, p = 0.028) and CSS (5-year 65.8% vs 50.3%, p = 0.077). In addition, the C-indexes of the nomograms for OS and CSS prediction were 0.692 and 0.705, respectively, and the nomograms showed good consistency.

Conclusion: This study revealed that surgical resection has a favorable impact on the long-term outcome of patients with synchronous GIST liver metastases, and the nomograms showed remarkable prediction performance for OS and CSS.

Keywords: Gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs); Nomogram; Prognosis; Surgery; Synchronous hepatic metastases (SHM).