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. 2022 Aug 16;19(16):10123.
doi: 10.3390/ijerph191610123.

Importance of Public Transport Networks for Reconciling the Spatial Distribution of Dengue and the Association of Socio-Economic Factors with Dengue Risk in Bangkok, Thailand

Bertrand Lefebvre  1 , Rojina Karki  2 , Renaud Misslin  3 , Kanchana Nakhapakorn  4 , Eric Daudé  5 , Richard E Paul  6
Affiliations

Importance of Public Transport Networks for Reconciling the Spatial Distribution of Dengue and the Association of Socio-Economic Factors with Dengue Risk in Bangkok, Thailand

Bertrand Lefebvre et al. Int J Environ Res Public Health. .

Abstract

Dengue is the most widespread mosquito-borne viral disease of man and spreading at an alarming rate. Socio-economic inequality has long been thought to contribute to providing an environment for viral propagation. However, identifying socio-economic (SE) risk factors is confounded by intra-urban daily human mobility, with virus being ferried across cities. This study aimed to identify SE variables associated with dengue at a subdistrict level in Bangkok, analyse how they explain observed dengue hotspots and assess the impact of mobility networks on such associations. Using meteorological, dengue case, national statistics, and transport databases from the Bangkok authorities, we applied statistical association and spatial analyses to identify SE variables associated with dengue and spatial hotspots and the extent to which incorporating transport data impacts the observed associations. We identified three SE risk factors at the subdistrict level: lack of education, % of houses being cement/brick, and number of houses as being associated with increased risk of dengue. Spatial hotspots of dengue were found to occur consistently in the centre of the city, but which did not entirely have the socio-economic risk factor characteristics. Incorporation of the intra-urban transport network, however, much improved the overall statistical association of the socio-economic variables with dengue incidence and reconciled the incongruous difference between the spatial hotspots and the SE risk factors. Our study suggests that incorporating transport networks enables a more real-world analysis within urban areas and should enable improvements in the identification of risk factors.

Keywords: Bangkok; dengue; mobility; socio-economic risk; spatial clusters; transport system.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest. The funders had no role in the design of the study; in the collection, analyses, or interpretation of data; in the writing of the manuscript, or in the decision to publish the results.

Figures

Figure A1
Figure A1
Median and interquartile range of the monthly reported cases of dengue by year in Bangkok, Thailand over 2000–2013.
Figure A2
Figure A2
Relationship of significant meteorological variables with dengue incidence, 2000–2013, in Bangkok, Thailand. (a) lag 1 mean precipitation; (b) lag 1 diurnal temperature range; (c) lag 1 max precipitation; (d) maximum temperatures. Shown are the data points and the best fit regression line from the multivariate analysis.
Figure A3
Figure A3
Spatial autocorrelation of dengue incidence rates as a function of distance.
Figure A4
Figure A4
LISA significance maps for 2012 and 2013 Dengue Incidence Rate.
Figure 1
Figure 1
Incidence rate of dengue cases across the subdistricts of Bangkok in (a) 2012 and (b) 2013.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Cluster analysis of incidence rates of dengue across subdistricts in Bangkok, Thailand by year (a) 2012 and (b) 2013.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Cluster analysis of incidence rates of dengue across subdistricts in Bangkok, Thailand by year (a) 2012 and (b) 2013.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Bangkok Public Transport Network: (a) Public Transport Stops Heatmap, (b) Density of Public Transport Stops across subdistricts.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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