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. 2022 Sep 2;71(35):1131-1135.
doi: 10.15585/mmwr.mm7135e2.

Modeling the Impact of Sexual Networks in the Transmission of Monkeypox virus Among Gay, Bisexual, and Other Men Who Have Sex with Men - United States, 2022

Ian H Spicknall  1 , Emily D Pollock  1 , Patrick A Clay  1 , Alexandra M Oster  1 , Kelly Charniga  1 , Nina Masters  1 , Yoshinori J Nakazawa  1 , Gabriel Rainisch  1 , Adi V Gundlapalli  1 , Thomas L Gift  1
Affiliations

Modeling the Impact of Sexual Networks in the Transmission of Monkeypox virus Among Gay, Bisexual, and Other Men Who Have Sex with Men - United States, 2022

Ian H Spicknall et al. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. .
No abstract available

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Conflict of interest statement

All authors have completed and submitted the International Committee of Medical Journal Editors form for disclosure of potential conflicts of interest. No potential conflicts of interest were disclosed.

Figures

FIGURE 1
FIGURE 1
Modeled number of new infections each day by lower† and higher§ transmission scenarios and type of partnership over the course of a monkeypox outbreak among men who have sex with men, by time since importation of 10 high activity cases — United States, 2022 * Numbers presented are the mean number of infections across 60 stochastic trials in which no premature extinction occurred. † In the lower transmission scenario, it was assumed that there was a 60% probability of Monkeypox virus transmission per sex act: 54.0% of transmission occurred through one time, 33.2% through casual, and 12.9% through main partnerships over the course of the outbreak. § In the higher transmission scenario, it was assumed that there was a 90% probability of Monkeypox virus transmission per sex act: 45.6% of transmission occurred through one time, 38.8% through casual, and 15.6% through main partnerships over the course of the outbreak.
FIGURE 2
FIGURE 2
Modeled impact of reduction in one-time sexual partners† in a monkeypox outbreak among men who have sex with men with lower§ and higher¶ transmission scenarios, by days since importation of 10 high activity cases — United States, 2022 Abbreviations: CI = credibility interval; MSM = men who have sex with men. * The 50% CI were calculated from 60 stochastic trials in which no premature extinction occurred. † Represents a behavior change that assumes a 40% reduction in one-time partnership formation at day 75 of the outbreak. § In the lower transmission scenario, behavior change caused a 31% proportionate reduction in the final percentage infected. In the higher transmission scenario, behavior changed caused a 20% proportionate reduction in the final percentage infected.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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