A new pandemic and an old epidemic: The impact of COVID-19 and gun violence as measured by years of potential life lost in a US city

Abstract

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has altered daily life on a global scale and has resulted in significant mortality with >985,000 lives lost in the United States alone. Superimposed on the COVID-19 pandemic has been a concurrent worsening of longstanding urban gun violence. We sought to evaluate the impact attributable to these 2 major public health issues on the greater Louisville region as determined by years of potential life lost.

Methods: Using the Collaborative Jefferson County Firearm Injury Database, all firearm injuries from January 1, 2011 to December 31, 2021 were examined. The COVID-19 data was compiled from the Louisville Metro Department of Public Health and Wellness. Pre-COVID (March 1, 2019-February 29, 2020) and COVID (March 1, 2020-February 28, 2021) time intervals were examined. The demographics, outcomes data, and years of potential life lost were determined for the groups, and injury locations were geocoded.

Results: From 2011 to 2021, there were 6,043 firearm injuries in Jefferson County, Kentucky. During the COVID time interval, there were 4,574 years of potential life lost due to the SARS-CoV-2 virus and 9,722 years of potential life lost due to all-cause gun violence. In the pre-COVID time interval, there were 5,723 years of potential life lost due to all-cause gun violence.

Conclusion: In Louisville, greater years of potential life lost were attributable to firearm fatalities than the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Given the impact of COVID-19, the robust response has been proportionate and appropriate. The lack of response to firearm injury and fatality is striking in comparison. Additional resources to combat the sequelae of gun violence are needed.

Graphical abstract

Figure 1

Incidence of gun violence in Jefferson County, KY from 2011 to 2021, divided by mechanism into interpersonal, unintentional, and intentional self-inflicted gun violence.

Figure 2

Mortality gradient maps of Jefferson County comparing all-cause gun violence and COVID-19 mortality (per 100,000 people) during the first 12 months of the pandemic. Higher death rates for both COVID-19 and gun violence occur in the city’s west side, with a more pronounced east-to-west discrepancy noted for gun violence based on map gradients.

Figure 3

The years of potential life lost from interpersonal gun violence during the pre-COVID time period compared to the years of potential life lost from COVID-19 during the first year of the pandemic. ∗Pre-COVID time period refers to March 1, 2019 to February 29, 2020.

Figure 4

The years of potential life lost from interpersonal gun violence during the COVID time period compared with the years of potential life lost from COVID-19 during the first 12 months of the pandemic. ∗COVID time period refers to March 1, 2020 to February 28, 2021.