Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2022 Sep 5;12(1):15064.
doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-18601-1.

Roadmap for achieving net-zero emissions in global food systems by 2050

Ciniro Costa Jr  1   2 , Eva Wollenberg  3   4   5 , Mauricio Benitez  6 , Richard Newman  7 , Nick Gardner  8 , Federico Bellone  9
Affiliations

Roadmap for achieving net-zero emissions in global food systems by 2050

Ciniro Costa Jr et al. Sci Rep. .

Abstract

Food systems (FSs) emit ~ 20 GtCO2e/y (~ 35% of global greenhouse gas emissions). This level tends to raise given the expected increases in food demands, which may threaten global climate targets. Through a rapid assessment, evaluating 60+ scenarios based on existing low-emission and carbon sequestration practices, we estimate that intensifying FSs could reduce its emissions from 21.4 to - 2.0 GtCO2e/y and address increasing food demands without relying on carbon offsets (e.g., related to afforestation and reforestation programs). However, given historical trends and regional contexts, a more diverse portfolio of practices, including diet shifts and new-horizon technologies, will be needed to increase the feasibility of achieving net-zero FSs. One likely pathway consists of implementing practices that shift food production to the 30th-percentile of least emission-intensive FSs (~ 45% emissions reduction), sequester carbon at 50% of its potential (~ 5 GtCO2e/y) and adopt diet shifts and new-horizon technologies (~ 6 GtCO2e/y). For a successful transition to happen, the global FSs would, in the next decade (2020s), need to implement cost-effective mitigation practices and technologies, supported by improvements in countries' governance and technical assistance, innovative financial mechanisms and research focused on making affordable technologies in the following two decades (2030-2050). This work provides options and a vision to guide global FSs to achieving net-zero by 2050.

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Global food systems emissions in 2020 (A) and estimated global food systems emissions 2010–2050 (B).
Figure 2
Figure 2
Food systems emissions by shifting global food production to the 40th, 30th, 20th and 10th pctl least emission-intensive systems in 2050.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Food systems emissions reduction (green bar) with the implementation of low-emission practices (to move production systems to the least 10th, 20th, 30th and 40th pctl emissions intensive*), realization of potential carbon sequestration (CS) in agriculture in soils, agroforestry and biochar application (CS; at 0, 50, 75 and 100% level of implementation**), diet shift (DS) to reduce livestock-based protein consumption (SD; at 0, 10, 25 and 50% of projected 2050 values***) and adoption of new-horizon technologies (orange bar). *(Poore and Nemeck); **(Roe et al.; 10 GtCO2e); ***(Based on 2050 projected meat and milk projections—FAO, 2018).
Figure 4
Figure 4
Roadmap for food systems net zero emissions by 2050.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. IPCC. Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Shukla, P. R. et al.) 10.1017/9781009157926 (Cambridge University Press, 2022).
    1. IPCC. Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Core Writing Team (eds Pachauri, R. K. et al.) (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC, 2014).
    1. Clark MA, Domingo NGG, Colgan K, Thakrar SK, Tilman D, Lynch J, Azevedo I, Hill JD. Global food system emissions could preclude achieving the 1.5° and 2°C climate change targets. Science. 2020;370:705–708. doi: 10.1126/science.aba7357. - DOI - PubMed
    1. Hasegawa T, Fujimori S, Frank S, Humpenoder F, Bertram C, Després J, Drouet L, Emmerling J, Gusti M, Harmsen M, Keramidas K, Ochi Y, Oshiro K, Rochedo P, van Ruijven B, Cabardos A, Deppermann A, Fosse F, Haylik P, Krey V, Popp A, Schaeffer R, van Vuuren D, Riahi K. Land-based implications of early climate actions without global net-negative emissions. Nat. Sustain. 2021;4:1052–1059. doi: 10.1038/s41893-021-00772-w. - DOI
    1. Roe S, Streck C, Beach R, Busch J, Chapman M, Daioglou V, Deppermann A, Doelman J, Emmet-Booth J, Engelmann J, Fricko O, Frischmann C, Funk J, Grassi G, Griscom B, Havlik P, Hanssen S, Humpenöder F, Landholm D, Lomax G, Lehmann J, Mesnildrey L, Nabuurs G, Popp A, Rivard C, Sanderman J, Sohngen B, Smith P, Stehfest E, Woolf D, Lawrence D. Land-based measures to mitigate climate change: Potential and feasibility by country. Glob. Change Biol. 2021 doi: 10.1111/gcb.15873. - DOI - PMC - PubMed

Publication types