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. 2022 Sep-Oct;36(5):2287-2296.
doi: 10.21873/invivo.12958.

A Simple Prediction Score for Diagnosis of Acute Pancreatitis

Maaret Eskelinen #  1 , Jannica Meklin #  2 , Tuomas Selander  3 , Kari Syrjånen  4   5 , Matti Eskelinen  2
Affiliations

A Simple Prediction Score for Diagnosis of Acute Pancreatitis

Maaret Eskelinen et al. In Vivo. 2022 Sep-Oct.

Abstract

Background/aim: The diagnostic accuracy (DA) for patients with acute pancreatitis (AcPa) has been rarely evaluated.

Patients and methods: In the AcPa study group, there were 22 patients versus 1,311 patients in the non-AcPa group. The clinical history-taking variables (CHT) (n=22), clinical signs & tests details (CST) (n=14), and laboratory analyses (n=3) were recorded in each patient. Meta-analytical techniques were used to detect the summary sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp) estimates for each data set; CHT, CST, and diagnostic scores (DS).

Results: In receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, the area under curve (AUC) values for i) CHT, ii) CST, and iii) DS were as follows: i) AUC=0.640 (95%CI=0.550-0.730); ii) AUC=0.588 (95%CI=0.520-0.656), and iii) AUC=0.943 (95%CI=0.910-0.976). The differences between these AUC values (roccomp analysis) are as follows: i) versus ii) p=0.155; i) versus iii) p<0.0001; ii) versus iii) p<0.0001.

Conclusion: The new DS introduced in this study proved to be far superior to both symptoms and signs & tests in its DA for AcPa, as demonstrated by HSROC analysis.

Keywords: Abdominal pain; HSROC; acute pancreatitis; diagnostic accuracy; diagnostic score.

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Conflict of interest statement

The Authors report no conflicts of interest or financial ties in relation to this study.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1. Sensitivities of history-taking in acute pancreatitis (AcPa) (random-effects model). ES: Estimated sensitivity; CI: confidence interval.
Figure 2
Figure 2. Specificities of history-taking in acute pancreatitis (AcPa) (random-effects model). ES: Estimated specificity; CI: confidence interval.
Figure 3
Figure 3. Sensitivities of signs and tests in acute pancreatitis (AcPa) (random-effects model). ES: Estimated sensitivity; CI: confidence interval.
Figure 4
Figure 4. Specificities of clinical signs and tests in acute pancreatitis (AcPa) (random-effects model). ES: Estimated specificity; CI: confidence interval.
Figure 5
Figure 5. Sensitivities of diagnostic scores at six different cut-off levels (DS I-VI). ES: Estimated sensitivity; CI: confidence interval.
Figure 6
Figure 6. Specificities of diagnostic scores at six different cut-off levels (DS I-VI). ES: Estimated specificity; CI: confidence interval.
Figure 7
Figure 7. Hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic (HSROC) curve of the history-taking in acute pancreatitis (AcPa).
Figure 8
Figure 8. Hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic (HSROC) curve of the clinical signs and tests in acute pancreatitis (AcPa).
Figure 9
Figure 9. Hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic (HSROC) curve of the six diagnostic scores (DSs).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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