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. 2022 Sep 2:13:1000688.
doi: 10.3389/fmicb.2022.1000688. eCollection 2022.

Probabilistic modeling and risk characterization of the chronic aflatoxin M1 exposure of Hungarian consumers

Zsuzsa Farkas  1 , Kata Kerekes  2 , Árpád Ambrus  3 , Miklós Süth  1 , Ferenc Peles  4 , Tünde Pusztahelyi  5 , István Pócsi  6 , Attila Nagy  7 , Péter Sipos  8 , Gabriella Miklós  9 , Anna Lőrincz  10 , Szilveszter Csorba  1 , Ákos Bernard Jóźwiak  1
Affiliations

Probabilistic modeling and risk characterization of the chronic aflatoxin M1 exposure of Hungarian consumers

Zsuzsa Farkas et al. Front Microbiol. .

Abstract

Aflatoxin contamination can appear in various points of the food chain. If animals are fed with contaminated feed, AFB1 is transformed-among others-to aflatoxin M1 (AFM1) metabolite. AFM1 is less toxic than AFB1, but it is still genotoxic and carcinogenic and it is present in raw and processed milk and all kinds of milk products. In this article, the chronic exposure estimation and risk characterization of Hungarian consumers are presented, based on the AFM1 contamination of milk and dairy products, and calculated with a probabilistic method, the two-dimensional Monte-Carlo model. The calculations were performed using the R plugin (mc2d package) integrated into the KNIME (Konstanz Information Miner) software. The simulations were performed using data from the 2018-2020 food consumption survey. The AFM1 analytical data were derived from the Hungarian monitoring survey and 1,985 milk samples were analyzed within the framework of the joint project of the University of Debrecen and the National Food Chain Safety Office of Hungary (NÉBIH). Limited AFM1 concentrations were available for processed dairy products; therefore, a database of AFM1 processing factors for sour milk products and various cheeses was produced based on the latest literature data, and consumer exposure was calculated with the milk equivalent of the consumed quantities of these products. For risk characterization, the calculation of hazard index (HI), Margin of Exposure, and the hepatocellular carcinoma incidence were used. The results indicate that the group of toddlers that consume a large amount of milk and milk products are exposed to a certain level of health risk. The mean estimated daily intake of toddlers is in the range of 0.008-0.221 ng kg-1 bw day-1; the 97.5th percentile exposure of toddlers is between 0.013 ng kg-1 bw day-1 and 0.379 ng kg-1 bw day-1, resulting in a HI above 1. According to our study, the exposure of older age groups does not pose an emergent health risk. Nevertheless, the presence of carcinogenic compounds should be kept to a minimum in the whole population.

Keywords: AFM1; consumer groups at risk; long-term exposure; mycotoxin exposure assessment; probabilistic method.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Relative and cumulative frequency distribution of DE and NEBIH AFM1 data.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Median values of the mean and 97.5th percentile distributions.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Cumulative frequency distributions of AFM1 exposure of toddlers, estimated by the 2D Monte Carlo method based on Box-Cox t distribution indicating the threshold used for HI calculation (dashed line), years 2019–2022.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Cumulative frequency distributions of AFM1 exposure of children, estimated by the 2D Monte Carlo method based on Box-Cox t distribution indicating the threshold used for HI calculation (dashed line), years 2019–2022.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Cumulative frequency distributions of AFM1 exposure of toddlers, indicating the threshold used for HI calculation (dashed line), years 2011–2022.
Figure 6
Figure 6
Cumulative frequency distributions of AFM1 exposure of children, indicating the threshold used for HI calculation (dashed line), years 2011–2022.
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