Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2022 Sep;7(9):e009773.
doi: 10.1136/bmjgh-2022-009773.

Economic impacts of overweight and obesity: current and future estimates for 161 countries

Adeyemi Okunogbe  1 , Rachel Nugent  2 , Garrison Spencer  2 , Jaynaide Powis  3 , Johanna Ralston  3 , John Wilding  3
Affiliations

Economic impacts of overweight and obesity: current and future estimates for 161 countries

Adeyemi Okunogbe et al. BMJ Glob Health. 2022 Sep.

Abstract

Introduction: The scope of the challenge of overweight and obesity (OAO) has not been fully realised globally, in part because much of what is known about the economic impacts of OAO come from high-income countries (HICs) and are not readily comparable due to methodological differences. Our objective is to estimate the current and future national economic impacts of OAO globally.

Methods: We estimated economic impacts of OAO for 161 countries using a cost-of-illness approach. Direct and indirect costs of OAO between 2019 and 2060 were estimated from a societal perspective. We assessed the effect of two hypothetical scenarios of OAO prevalence projections. Country-specific data were sourced from published studies and global databases.

Results: The economic impact of OAO in 2019 is estimated at 2.19% of global gross domestic product (GDP) ranging on average from US$20 per capita in Africa to US$872 per capita in the Americas and from US$6 in low-income countries to US$1110 in HICs.If current trends continue, by 2060, the economic impacts from OAO are projected to rise to 3.29% of GDP globally. The biggest increase will be concentrated in lower resource countries with total economic costs increasing by fourfold between 2019 and 2060 in HICs, whereas they increase 12-25 times in low and middle-income countries. Reducing projected OAO prevalence by 5% annually from current trends or keeping it at 2019 levels will translate into average annual reductions of US$429 billion or US$2201 billion in costs, respectively, between 2020 and 2060 globally.

Conclusion: This study provides novel evidence on the economic impact of OAO across different economic and geographic contexts. Our findings highlight the need for concerted and holistic action to address the global rise in OAO prevalence, to avert the significant risks of inaction and achieve the promise of whole-of-society gains in population well-being.

Keywords: Health economics; Health policy; Public Health.

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

Competing interests: AO, RN, GS report the research was supported by a grant from the World Obesity Federation which received an unrestricted grant from Novo Nordisk; JP reports grants from Novo Nordisk, during the conduct of the study; JR reports grants from Novo Nordisk, during the conduct of the study; JW reports grants, personal fees and consultancy fees to his institution from AstraZeneca and Novo Nordisk, personal fees and consultancy fees paid to institution from Boehringer Ingelheim, Napp, consultancy fees paid to institution from Astellas, Janssen, Mundipharma, Lilly, Sanofi, Saniona, Rhythm Pharmaceuticals, and Wilmington Healthcare, outside the submitted work.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Cost components framework.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Economic impacts of overweight and obesity per capita in 2019 (in 2019 USD) *OAO, overweight and obesity. *Data displayed in map scaled using natural logarithm.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Economic impact of overweight and obesity as per cent of GDP in 2019 (in 2019 USD). GDP, gross domestic product.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Economic impacts of overweight and obesity as per cent of GDP and obesity prevalence by income group, 2019 and 2060
Figure 5
Figure 5
Economic impacts of obesity as a per cent of GDP and obesity prevalence by region, 2019 and 2060. GDP, gross domestic product; OAO, overweight and obesity.
Figure 6
Figure 6
Economic impacts of overweight and obesity, 2019 and 2060, by country. *Upper middle-income. **Lower middle-income. ***Low-income. GDP, gross domestic product; OAO, overweight and obesity.
Figure 7
Figure 7
Cost as a per cent of GDP in baseline, 5% reduction, and constant prevalence scenario by region. AFR, Africa; AMR, the Americas; EMR, Eastern Mediterranean; EUR, Europe; GDP, gross domestic product; SEA, South-East Asian; WPR, Western Pacific.
Figure 8
Figure 8
Percent growth in total economic impacts of OAO between 2019 and 2060. *Data displayed in map scaled using natural logarithm. OAO, overweight and obesity.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

Comment in

References

    1. NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC) . Worldwide trends in body-mass index, underweight, overweight, and obesity from 1975 to 2016: a pooled analysis of 2416 population-based measurement studies in 128·9 million children, adolescents, and adults. Lancet 2017;390:2627–42. 10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32129-3 - DOI - PMC - PubMed
    1. Ralston J, Brinsden H, Buse K, et al. . Time for a new obesity narrative. The Lancet 2018;392:1384–6. 10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32537-6 - DOI - PubMed
    1. Peters R, Ee N, Peters J, et al. . Common risk factors for major noncommunicable disease, a systematic overview of reviews and commentary: the implied potential for targeted risk reduction. Ther Adv Chronic Dis 2019;10:2040622319880392. 10.1177/2040622319880392 - DOI - PMC - PubMed
    1. Murray CJL, Aravkin AY, Zheng P, et al. . Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2019. The Lancet 2020;396:1223–49. 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30752-2 - DOI - PMC - PubMed
    1. Popkin BM, Du S, Green WD, et al. . Individuals with obesity and COVID-19: a global perspective on the epidemiology and biological relationships. Obes Rev 2020;21:e13128. 10.1111/obr.13128 - DOI - PMC - PubMed

Publication types