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. 2022 Sep 16;31(2):e20211150.
doi: 10.1590/S2237-96222022000200022. eCollection 2022.

Temporal trend of COVID-19 incidence and mortality rates and their relationship with socioeconomic indicators in the state of Piauí, Brazil: an ecological study, 2020-2021

[Article in English, Portuguese]
Vanessa Rodrigues da Silva  1 , Edildete Sene Pacheco  1 , Osmar de Oliveira Cardoso  1 , Luisa Helena de Oliveira Lima  1 , Malvina Thaís Pacheco Rodrigues  1 , Márcio Dênis Medeiros Mascarenhas  1
Affiliations

Temporal trend of COVID-19 incidence and mortality rates and their relationship with socioeconomic indicators in the state of Piauí, Brazil: an ecological study, 2020-2021

[Article in English, Portuguese]
Vanessa Rodrigues da Silva et al. Epidemiol Serv Saude. .

Abstract
in English, Portuguese, Spanish

Objective: To analyze the temporal trend of COVID-19 incidence and mortality rates and their relationship with socioeconomic indicators.

Methods: This was an ecological time series study of COVID-19 cases/deaths in municipalities in Piauí, Brazil, between March, 2020 and May, 2021. Prais-Winsten linear regression model and Spearman's correlation test were used.

Results: There were 271,228 cases and 5,888 deaths in the period. There was a rising trend in COVID-19 incidence rate, while the mortality trend was stable. The spatio-temporal analyses showed higher incidence/mortality in the second and fifth quarters of the period. There was no statistically significant correlation between COVID-19 and the Social Vulnerability Index (IVS). Significant correlations between the Municipal Human Development Index (IDHM) and COVID-19 incidence (p-value < 0.001) and mortality rates (p-value < 0.001) were found.

Conclusion: There was a rising trend in COVID-19 incidence and stability in COVID-19 mortality. Correlation between the MHDI and these two indicators was moderate and weak, respectively, demanding public service management decisions aimed at improving the population's quality of life.

Objetivo: Analisar a tendência temporal das taxas de incidência e de mortalidade por COVID-19 e sua relação com indicadores socioeconômicos.

Métodos: Estudo ecológico de série temporal sobre casos/óbitos por COVID-19 em municípios do Piauí, Brasil, de março de 2020 a maio de 2021. Foram utilizados o modelo de regressão linear de Prais-Winsten e o teste de correlação de Spearman.

Resultados: Houve 271.228 casos e 5.888 óbitos, com tendência crescente na incidência e estável na mortalidade por COVID-19. Análises espaço-temporais demonstraram maior incidência/mortalidade no segundo e no quinto trimestres do período. Não houve correlação estatisticamente significativa entre COVID-19 e índice de vulnerabilidade social (IVS). Foram observadas correlações significativas do índice de desenvolvimento humano municipal (IDHM) com taxas de incidência (p-valor < 0,001) e de mortalidade (p-valor < 0,001) pela doença.

Conclusão: Houve tendência crescente na taxa de incidência e estabilidade na mortalidade por COVID-19, e respectivamente correlação moderada e fraca desses indicadores com o IDHM, demandando decisões de gestão voltadas à melhoria na qualidade de vida da população.

Objetivo: Analizar la tendencia temporal de las tasas de incidencia y mortalidad por COVID-19 y su relación con indicadores socioeconómicos.

Métodos: Estudio de serie temporal ecológica de casos/muertes por COVID-19 en municipios de Piauí, Brasil, entre marzo de 2020 y mayo de 2021. Se utilizaron el modelo de regresión lineal de Prais-Winsten y la prueba de correlación de Spearman.

Resultados: Hubo 271.228 casos y 5.888 defunciones en período. Hubo una tendencia creciente en la tasa de incidencia y estabilidad en la mortalidad por COVID-19. Los análisis espacio-temporales mostraron mayor incidencia/mortalidad en segundo/quinto trimestre del período. No hubo una correlación estadísticamente significativa entre COVID-19 y el índice de vulnerabilidad social (IVS). Se observaron correlaciones significativas entre índice de desarrollo humano municipal (IDHM) e incidencia (p-valor < 0,001) y mortalidad (p-valor < 0,001) por COVID-19.

Conclusión: Hubo una tendencia creciente en la incidencia de COVID-19 y estabilidad en mortalidad por la enfermedad. Hubo correlación moderada y débil de estos indicadores con IDHM, exigiendo decisiones encaminadas a mejorar la calidad de vida de la población en los ámbitos de gestión.

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Conflict of interest statement

CONFLICTS OF INTEREST: The authors declared that they have no conflicts of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1. Evolution of the quarterly average COVID-19 incidence rate (per 100,000 inhabitants), by municipality of residence, Piauí, Brazil, March/2020-May/2021
Figure 2
Figure 2. Evolution of the quarterly average COVID-19 mortality rate (per 100,000 inhabitants), by municipality of residence, Piauí, Brazil, March/2020-May/2021
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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